2018平地木年-英美烟草

随着509大马政权的替换， 股票市场也迎来了一次的大转变。其中与前朝政府密切的官联公司的股价也跌跌不息，到了今天也还没出现缓下来的情况。但随着政权的替换，也为投资者带来了契机。其中一间收益的公司就是英美烟草，随着消费税的取消和潜在的打贪行动带动了英美烟草的股价上扬。股价从历年的RM 22.46的新低冲到了28/5/2018的RM 31.78。

哪英美烟草到底的潜在价值是多少呢？就以一些市场上可得到的数据来做个推算。

根据最新的英美烟草的2018第一季度报告，大马的香烟市场上的63%为走私烟，合法香烟的市场占有率为37%。在合法香烟的37%里，英美烟草的市场份额占了54.7%。2018第一季度的营业额为6.37亿。

所以从这几个数据推出来，如果大马有100%合法香烟的话，那么合法香烟市场的营业额为125亿。当然这是最完美的情况，市场上都会有走私香烟的情况。

假设新政府能够致力于打贪和加强沿海一带执法，把走私香烟的份额降低到大马前几年的35%， 英美烟草的盈利会是多少呢？换算成65%的合法烟，市场额为81.25亿。

假设英美香烟的市场占有率不变，或维持在54.7%的份额以上，利润率为18-20%，，私烟降低到35%， 英美烟草每年的盈利可达到8亿到9亿之间，换算为每股盈利至少RM 2.8到RM 3.15之间。历年来市场都给与英美烟草PE 18.8x的估值，所以未来合理股价为 RM52.6 到 RM59.2之间。

当然这个预测只是保守的涵盖了存量的转变（部分私烟转为合法烟），没加入增量的可能性（例如消费税的减低，推出小包装香烟等等的政策）。接下来股价是否能回到RM70的价钱还需取决于政府是否能持续的良好施政和沿海一带地加强执法，以还回50亿令吉的香烟税收于国库。

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巨盛-泰山不让土壤，故能成其大

首先在从行业和生意角度来探讨Ge-Shen前，笔者想与大家分享自己投资上经历的一些经验及学习。

今天要讲的就是Don't Try to Time the Market
如果想从巴菲特的关于这个投资理念，可以游览
http://www.banbijiang.com/book/story.php?id=73261

也许Ge-Shen新的领导人Mr Chan Choong Kong是个前基金经理大约也明白到这个don't try to time the market的道理，所以很多与公司业务有关的客户资料，客户颁发的奖项等一切与我们散户投资者想得到的蛛丝马迹都不能够在Ge-Shen的官方网站获得。所以我们也不能从中预先得到Ge-Shen的一些上市公司客户业绩来预测Ge-Shen财政好坏。不过这对笔者来说已不是一个大问题，因为管理层已经通过收购两间公司，Poly Plas 和Demand Option来扩大它客户群，单一大客户的问题已经获得解决。这可以从今年第二个季度报告可以看出营业额与盈利都比往年更加出色和稳定。

笔者不在Plastic Injection 行业工作，但是笔者的大学同学及一些朋友是从事这个行业，通过与他们的交谈，看到了Ge-Shen未来的光芒。通常上半年塑料业者都是忙于做R&D,接订单和自造模具直到下半年六月到九月开始公司才大量生产塑料产品来应对下半年九月到十二月的消费品购买旺季，而九月到十二月这个季节，公司也忙于出货给国外汽车行业，因为人们都习惯在隔年的年初买入汽车。这就解释了为什么管理层有提到下半年是传统强季。

但是如果你给予这个下半年公司业绩会走强的原因而买入Ge-Shen，那就有可能会错过与一间正跳跃性业绩成长的公司插肩而过。因为Ge-Shen的其中一个客户群，医疗行业客户是没有季节性质的，而且赚幅高，入门槛也高，因为公司要拿到制造医疗产品相关的证书ISO 13485也不简单，所以公司都必须管理得很好才能确保证书被更新。此外制造医疗产品证书须相对长的时间才能获得，很多规格比较大的塑料业公司都选择以一个较快的手法，就是收购同行来扩大客户群。Ge-Shen就是通过这方式来收购Poly Plas。


除了继续在塑料本行继续扩充壮大之外，公司还很有远见的朝One Stop Integrated Vertical Service  这个方向前进。这个可以说是现在塑料业者的大趋势来做产业升级，新加坡很多相关塑料业者现在也在积极寻找机会进军，但是Ge-Shen已经跑在前头了，可喜可贺。备注One Stop Integrated Vertical Service见(图一)是帮助客户从产品的原始设计，到制造模具，生产配件到组装配件为成品，赚幅高，利润好。

（图一）

Ge-Shen一路来的业务转型来之不易，但是管理层通过了上个季度的业绩来说明公司的决策是对的。加上中国产业的升级，公司可以从中受益，希望Ge-Shen可以继续巩固及扩充大马与越南的业务。

总结：花若盛開，蝴蝶自來，你若盛开，清风自来，人若精彩，天自安排 。

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浅谈大马纸包装行业

上一篇文章笔者分享了大马上游造纸厂业的背景和数据资料，以让读者能够先从纸业的上游大概了解整个纸包装行业的运作。

这一篇会提到瓦楞盒制造的简介和纸包装业者的运作，及国际纸价上涨的影响。

*包装业者（Orna Paper, PPHB, Box-Pak, Master-Pack)
*上游造纸业者 （Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Pascorp Paper)

瓦楞纸到纸箱的制造过程如下，

 
 首先，包装业者会向上游造纸厂购买Corrugated Medium, Kraft Liner/Liner (图一）作为原料并运回厂做加工(图二）成为瓦楞纸（图三，图四,）。过后包装业者根据客户的要求切割标准尺寸的瓦楞纸，最后进行彩色打印（如客户有此需求）。有兴趣进一步详细了解瓦楞纸制造的读者可以观看 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5nNUPNvWAw

(图一): https://www.gspp.com.my/product.html

（图二):http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html

（图三): http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html

（图四):http://www.packsize.com/know-your-different-types-of-corrugated-cardboard/

包装业者要如何提高的Profit Margin,最主要还是以订单量的大小(economies of scale & capacity utilization),效率（efficiency)和 来取胜。订单量越大，机器的设置时间就能够缩短，效率就提升和降低成本。然而至于能不能通过Cost Pass-Through来提高盈利也就牵制于客户的合作关系，货品的质量，发货时间，Payment Term等等因素。

最后一个杀手锏就是包装业者能否向上游造纸厂拿到价钱相对合理的原料货源。有这一方面货源成本优势的公司除了已经下市包装业者的 HPI Resources和 GS Paper and Packaging (均属于Oji Paper旗下），另一间就是属于Muda Paper Mills旗下的Federal Packages Sdn Bhd（http://www.federalpack.com.my/）。HPI Resources, GS Paper Packaging和 Federal Packages Sdn Bhd均能向自己的母公司（也就是上游造纸厂）拿到成本相对低廉的货源。

当然其他的包装业者也可从国外如印尼，越南和中国入口原料，但碍于马币的相对弱势和越南与中国也同样面对瓦楞纸短缺，所以本地包装业者还是倾向于本地的造纸厂拿货。最近的七月份，中国包装业者更向大马及越南造纸厂大量收购瓦楞纸以致出现当地货源价格上涨的问题。最近十月越南市场更有消息传出因中国包装业者的大量抢购，造成越南包装业者面对苦无原料开工的窘境。

虽然原料价钱上涨了，但是下半年通常是包装业者的传统强季，部分包装业者也有能力把额外的成本转嫁给客户。例如Orna Paper在季度报告就提到了他们成功把成本上涨转让给客户。Master-Pack也在最新季度报告提到了他们通过提高出货量和售价来进一步提升盈利。

笔者认为大马的瓦楞纸比起国外还是有优势的，因为外国货源的确是紧张和价钱也比大马高。从METS在八月份数据得知瓦楞纸原料外国入口量在下降，而瓦楞纸成品的出口量却持续增加。这说明了两个原因，

1. 包装业者纷纷转向本地造纸厂拿货。双方都得到好处， 包装业者可以拿到价格相对便宜的本地货，造纸厂生意额也增加了。
2. 包装业者货源充足有能力把瓦楞纸成品出口，赚取更好的利润。

总结：
这次纸价上扬的赢家肯定是上游造纸业者（Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Pascorp Paper),因为他们拥有控制价钱的话语权 Price Setter。 作为 Price Taker的包装业者（Orna Paper, PPHB, Box-Pak, Master-Pack)则需要通过本身工厂大小的规格和一系列的努力来控制成本以便能够在竞争的市场胜出。

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浅谈大马造纸业

資匯周刊这期报道了造纸和瓦楞纸包装行业，并与最近火红的钢铁行业做比较。因此想借此机会在进一步探索大马的造纸业的前景和它与中国的供给侧改革的影响。

这篇文章只对纸业的上游做分析，并不包含中下游的业务。当然有些上游公司也包含了一些中下游业务，不过不在重点讨论之内。

马来西亚的四大纸厂

1. Muda Paper Mill

最大型的造纸厂,一间工厂位于Kajang和另一间位于北部北海的厂。两间厂合起来的总生产量为490,000MT，为大马造纸厂的龙头老大，也是唯一一间上市的公司。主要产品为瓦楞纸,就是我们平常看到的褐色盒子的原材料。

2. GS Paper & Packaging,HPI (Group of Oji Paper)

位于雪兰莪万津的工厂,被日本的Oji Paper Group集团在2010年收购。2011年Oji Paper Group收购了上市公司HPI Resorces,本身的产量大约66,000MT产能。加上GS Paper 本身的282,000MT,总产能为348,000MT.主要产品为瓦楞纸。


3. Pascorp Paper Industries Sdn Bhd

一间位于彭亨文东由彭亨州政府控制的工厂，年产量为300,000MT，主要产品为瓦楞纸。


4. Sabah Forest Industries

前身为Lion Forest Industries，在2007年以9.45亿的价钱卖给印度的Avanth Group作为还债的用途。而在于2015年Avanth Group以5亿美金转手出售给Pandawa Sakti,马来西亚一间私人公司.这价钱包含了一块288,138 Ha的树林种植土地和从120,000MT到240,000MT产能升级。主要产品为白色文具纸张，主要出口到中东和非洲国家。

中国环境政策的影响，加强对造纸业的监管


中国双十一将至，市场上严缺纸箱。因为受到于中国禁止入口洋垃圾的政策，中国纸厂在缺乏入口废纸的大环境下，苦苦面对下游商的堆积如山的订单却无法生产。所以在过去马来西亚的包装中下游业者向中国纸商拿货的情况一去不复返。你可以在很多上市的中下游公司的季度文告可以发现几乎每家包装业者都转向本地纸厂拿货了。Muda Paper也在他们的年度季度报告提到了这一点,如下。

英媒：中国禁止进口“洋垃圾” 世界都慌了

http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/press-review-41348959


双十一旺季将至。中国电商陷纸箱缺货大危机 http://sinchew.com.my/node/1683272/%E5%8F%8C11%E6%97%BA%E5%AD%A3%E5%B0%86%E8%87%B3%EF%BC%8E

中国电商陷纸箱缺货最大的受益者当然是前三位的瓦楞纸纸厂，因为第一中国货源减少加上价钱提高，所以本地包装业者选择不从中国入口。第二因为中国禁止洋垃圾入口，大马造纸厂可以以更低价入口作为生产瓦楞纸的废纸。所以在这时候的大环境是非常有利于马来西亚的造纸厂，不过能够参股的就只有Muda Paper Mills 而已。

Southern steel Q1FY18 EPS Estimation

Ssteel Q1FY18 EPS forecast

Assumption: 
a.All Raw material were imported and in USD settlement
b.First In, First Out type of asset-management and valuation method.
c.All Raw Material and Scrap iron secured in Q4FY17 to be used in Q1FY18.
d.Imported scrap iron price, Rear Average Selling Price of Rebar are referred to Malaysia Government Official Website. Mean Value to be considered.
e.Number of Additional of Loan stock conversion (date: 6th September)
f.Tax issue

1.To find out Fixed Cost on top of Imported Scrap Iron Price (Based on Q3 QR)

Q3FY17 (Jan - March 2017) Average Scrap Iron Imported=RM1362/T
Q4FY17 (April- June 2017) Average Selling Price=RM1909/T
From Ssteel latest Q4FY17 financial report, company had delivered below expectation result of the LBT (Loss before Tax) of -8 million.
We can presume the cost of ssteel including operating expenses, admin costs, finance costs, tax and etc to be exactly at RM1909/T (Q4FY17 Average Selling Price)+ additional RM25/T of steel to compensate 8 million tax rebate.

As such, fixed cost per tonne of steel was RM1909+RM25-RM1362=RM572


2.To find out Q1FY18 Profit 


Q4FY17 (April-June 2017) Average Scrap Iron Imported=RM1176/T
Q1FY18 (July- September 2017)Average Selling Price=RM2240/T, Assuming Rebar continue trading at the price of RM2500. 
In fact,on 6th September 2017,price of certain rebar size is start from RM2600. Give RM100 discount to compensate in case any price drops in remaining September

Assume bring over fixed cost of RM572 to Q1FY18 + Increase price of graphite electrode of RM25/kg.

Profit for every tonne of Rebar during Q1FY18 =RM2240-RM1176-RM572-RM25=RM 467/T

Annual Ssteel Billet Capacity= 1.5 million Tonnes 
Quarter Capacity to be at, 375000 Tonnes 

Q1FY18 Profit to be at 375000 x RM 467= RM 175125000 or RM 175.1 million
EPS Q1FY2018=175125000/430934800=RM 0.406
Accumulating EPS=0.406+0.013+0.0754+0.0867=RM 0.58
Current Price Rm2.07, CU PE= 3.56


Ssteel is on the way marching to its 2008 glory day (Single Quarter earning of RM 0.48), History will Repeat itself.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4043085

The "Blue Sky" in China and the Rising Sun in Malaysia (Part 2 of 2)

Paper Mills in Malaysia, MUDA HOLDINGS BHD, is benefiting from "Blue Sky" Policy in China

1.Why? Shut down of Paper Mills in China

Paper mill is one of the affected industries in China, due to its high waste water discharged to environment. Paper mills in China is forced to shut down periodically. Up to date, 1/3 of paper mills production located in ZheJiang are idle, the supply of papers is cut down by at least 30 to 40%. While demand in China is remain high for their mainland internal consumption only. 

With reduced supply of raw paper, the price of paper has continued to rise.

Since November 2016, 16 paper manufacturers raised their prices by 100 yuan to 600 yuan per ton.

Quoted from: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=178282

Quoted from http://www.chinapaper.net/news/show-22163.html

2.Why? Another Major Incident in USA

Other than China, one of the Major paper mills manufacturer in USA has faced the production disruption due to explosion and affected the paper worldwide supply.

Quoted from one of the Bursa Malaysia listed packaging company, Ire-Tex, Annual Report 2016

Quoted from: http://www.pulpapernews.com/2017/01/pulp-digester-exploded-at-ip-s-pensacola-mill

3. Weakening of Ringgit against Renminbi

Weakening of Ringgit currency that hovered around at RMB 1.54 to 1.59  for past few months was another factor that turned some of the paper packaging companies to source cheaper papers from local. 

Muda Holding Bhd introduction

Muda Holding Bhd is the pioneer of the paper milling and packaging in Malaysia with their first paper mill in Tasek, Penang in 1964 and their first corrugator paper plant in Petaling Jaya in 1971. Today Muda own one of the largest integrated paper mill and corrugated plants in Malaysia.

Muda Group's Products

The shortage of paper supply in China will reduce availability of imported paper to Malaysia in Malaysia and boost the demand and selling price of the Muda’s paper.

Including a second progressive payment of RM13 million paid by the insurer to Muda Paper Mills on 17 February 2017, for the fire incident had occurred in 2016, we expected Muda is able to deliver a decent 1st quarter FY 2017 result which will announce on this May. 

However, the risks associated with the improving business environment.  

For instance, benefits of higher revenue was partially offset by higher raw material and energy cost. The increase in raw material cost is driven by tight supply from the domestic market (recycled paper) and also an upward trend in international price of the commodity. 

In countering such risks, the Group has invested in a new corrugating machine in the Kajang Plant, which will commence commercial production in the first half of 2017. The highly automated machine will reduce dependence on labour force and help improve economies of scale and profit margin.

Muda Holdings Bhd closed at RM 1.62 today (declaring 3 cents dividend on 28-Jun-2017). It's trading at PE 26 due to one time inventory write off event of fire incident last year. Put this one time factor aside, Muda Holdings Bhd, the only public listed Paper Mill in Malaysia is worth to take a look.

(Part 2 of 2)

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Next Growth Engines of Luxchem (Part 2 of 2)

Next Emerging Market-ASEAN, Vietnam, Particularly!

Luxchem has established their business in Vietnam since few years back. Their business has since grown from strength to strength and start to gain traction since year of 2015 followed by the incorporation and investment in Vietnam subsidiary. In the same year, Luxchem had successfully obtained an Investment certificate which allows Luxchem to commence business in Vietnam. 

Quoted from AR 2015

Why this License is Important for Luxchem?

With this license, Luxchem is able to sell their product to their customer in Vietnam directly and without "Middle Man". This is the win win situation for both seller and buyer, as Seller (Luxchem) will enjoy higher profit margin and sell the products at more competitive price and Buyer is able to procure the goods at lower price. 

From AR 2016, turnover in Vietnam had lifted 23% higher compared to FY2015. 

Again, why Vietnam?

As you can see from one of the comprehensive report about Vietnam Chemical Industry Outlook posted during year of 2016. Chemical Industry had achieved the high growth rate of 19.25% during the year from 2010 to 2014 and it is expected to grow substantially. 

The report further described,

"Chemicals ranked 11th among the top imported items in the country with a turnover of 1.94 billion US dollars and has just started to develop and met only 15-20% of demand meanwhile consumption in many areas every year are so high. Gaps in the market are also canvassed in detail, breaking the market into key components."

Quoted from http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160622006231/en/Vietnam-Chemicals-Report-2015-2016---Research-Markets

With such a demanding Vietnam market and followed by acquisition of Transform Master Sdn Bhd,  it has no doubt Luxchem could be able to continue gaining the traction and heading to their 10th consecutive growth financial year (expect for FY2012, slight decrease of 2 mil in turnover)

The price of Luxchem was traded at RM 1.56 with the PE of 8.5, DY of 4.3%. Margin of safety is relatively high for a growing business.

Comparing to its close peer, Sxxcxxx, with the price of RM2.28, PE of 20.76, DY of 2.6%. 

What say you?

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