tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33967919122767600952024-03-12T11:14:38.592-07:00SKY IS THE LIMITKhaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-23700273175014395282020-07-18T22:58:00.009-07:002020-07-18T23:14:35.985-07:005G 时代:RF 供货新格局<span id="docs-internal-guid-0cec6530-7fff-8906-9a2e-4d3d585818a5"><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 32pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; text-align: justify; white-space: pre-wrap;">目前,5G技术成了中美贸易对抗的重点关注领域,也是美国防止中国占领技术制高点的关键。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">中国在5G的发展上具有非常好的条件,包括基站、产品、端到端的连接和应用环境等等,目前中国在全球5G领域已经进入领先水平,而美国本身却没有很多5G基站企业。激烈的技术竞争将会影响到全球供应链格局,同时很多新的市场机会也会被释放出来。5G时代供应链变化,主要是手机射频方面。一是集成化趋势;二是RF 产业以整并为主的扩张;三是中国厂商逐渐入局;四是RF PA供应链的变化明显。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"> <b style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">RF 集成化趋势</b></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">目前RF射频模块具有集成化趋势。下图是一个简单的信号传输示意图,发射的过程是,模拟信号通过RF(TX)转换成数字信号,再通过PA放大、Filter滤波、根据频段进行开关处理、通过双工器,最后通过天线模组发射出去;接收的过程是,天线接收信号,通过双工器、Filter滤波、LNA放大,然后通过RF(RX)接收。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioT9zx3hmsXMvlKa-4jqF4AXB1H78w99YJnChWVh_o5jqc-vRPfxgttpeyi2zX_BqQrTSTtho4iG8dWa85D4pGkYP9jWL-JqT_uYlg98TJttXBuM8MpyqqtP0U1_wUeinDmCZDz3dbXvs/s599/v2-6970f909a555bd1b1b85e6a7e3d90caa_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="353" data-original-width="599" height="369" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioT9zx3hmsXMvlKa-4jqF4AXB1H78w99YJnChWVh_o5jqc-vRPfxgttpeyi2zX_BqQrTSTtho4iG8dWa85D4pGkYP9jWL-JqT_uYlg98TJttXBuM8MpyqqtP0U1_wUeinDmCZDz3dbXvs/w625-h369/v2-6970f909a555bd1b1b85e6a7e3d90caa_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">器件可以进行各种方式的集成,比如发送的部分,PA、Filter、Switch和双工可以做一定程度的集成;接收的部分,包含Filter和LNA的部分可以做一定程度的集成。根据集成程度的不同,市场上将集成方式分为低、中、高三个层次。5G因需要支持超过50个频段并采用多路MIMO,且全荧幕给天线设计带来的挑战,射频前端模块未来通过SiP(PLP研究中)封装将以Matrix方式进行整合,这是最高程度的集成。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">PS:MIMO(Multiple-Input Multiple-Output)技术指在发射端和接收端分别使用多个发射天线和接收天线,使信号通过发射端与接收端的多个天线传送和接收,从而改善通信质量。随着射频模块中元器件的整合,相应的供应商也会进行一定程度的整合。随着产品的集成,前端的厂商高通、三星、华为、MTK等,后端的天线厂商村田、TDK、华新,PA部分的厂商Skywork、博通等也在相当程度的进行整合,比如后端的厂商村田、TDK向前端PA转移,PA的部分厂商,如Skywork一定程度的向后端转移。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>RF 产业—整并为主的扩张</b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">在整个RF领域里,产业的整并是一个趋势。从2014年到2019年涉及整并的企业有Qorvo、Avago、博通、Skyworks,高通、MTK、紫光集团等等。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1mQglvPPor-KpvBxzH6E0IAkr7Vgn8vqvW-YUoVSVq2TkkBGBfELBQI-lDM7_FpkxmdULPP9w6My9dG4RO0LlX0Jhf-KrDpcfiaGGngs4mmCp8GIu_fF3RhWtG6l2dAaGk5g_9r89yQ/s530/v2-52bb52e157e9bf06d0d727ba4a5e07f5_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="530" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1mQglvPPor-KpvBxzH6E0IAkr7Vgn8vqvW-YUoVSVq2TkkBGBfELBQI-lDM7_FpkxmdULPP9w6My9dG4RO0LlX0Jhf-KrDpcfiaGGngs4mmCp8GIu_fF3RhWtG6l2dAaGk5g_9r89yQ/w625-h350/v2-52bb52e157e9bf06d0d727ba4a5e07f5_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">详细整并情况如下:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2014 年 2 月 24 日,RFMD和竞争对手TriQuint,以全股票交易形式,合并成为一家新的公司,并更名为Qorvo;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2014年4月,Skyworks和Panasonic宣布合资成立Filter工厂。(2016年买下了这家公司的所有股权);</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2014年6月,Qualcomm宣布收购Black Sand;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2014年7月,紫光集团收购RDA。(2016年2月,紫光展锐成立,展讯和锐迪科隶属于紫光展锐旗下);</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2014年8月,村田宣布收购Peregrine;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2015年3月,NXP收购Freescale;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2015年5月,Avago收购Broadcom;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2015年10月,Globalfoundries宣布收购IBM Wafer;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2016年2月,Qualcomm和TDK宣布合资RF360;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2016年4月,Qorvo宣布收购Green Peak;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2016年5月,Skywork宣布收购RFaxis;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2016年6月,Skywork宣布收购Anadigics;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2017年2月,Mediatek宣布收购Airoha;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">◆2019年5月,Mediatek入股Vanchip;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>重点来看射频领域三大头部企业的整并发展史,Broadcom、Qorvo和Skyworks。</b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">Broadcom:博通是一家注重以兼并收购为主的公司,后来被Avago收购以后成为新博通。在美国上个世纪60/70年代,很多公司为了专业分工,会把一些产业进行外包,很多RF厂商就是那个时候凸显出来的,比如Avago,之前是HP的一个部门,后来分拆出一个公司安捷伦,安捷伦后来在分出Avago。博通被Avago收购以后,两家公司强强联手,Broadcom在芯片领域比较强,Avago在RF方面比较强。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIs-_hTsT9wf8evA3iFa4AzN8bXOCbS_DsF1Z71g94fu8K_6BOGPvPlAE_0HhMIMhU6aIZNmf1_pc28QBYAM93tFA0FaLODYpGsAgmb0uT5sQnQaI6j51pLo4YkXzVpf-uDR4tmxoOJ5Y/s595/v2-65d3257569c31d7b045405902f53e768_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="334" data-original-width="595" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIs-_hTsT9wf8evA3iFa4AzN8bXOCbS_DsF1Z71g94fu8K_6BOGPvPlAE_0HhMIMhU6aIZNmf1_pc28QBYAM93tFA0FaLODYpGsAgmb0uT5sQnQaI6j51pLo4YkXzVpf-uDR4tmxoOJ5Y/w625-h351/v2-65d3257569c31d7b045405902f53e768_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">Qorvo:由两家主要的公司合并而成,RFMD和TriQuint,TriQuint出生于Tektonix(泰克),跟安捷伦一样,是做无线设备测试的公司,后来,两家公司在2015年合并成为Qorvo,两家公司合并在3G和4G时代,并没有取得很好的成效,因为Qorvo有Sub-6G和mmWave(毫米波),还有GaN氮化镓的能力,所以在5G时代很被看好。</span> </p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Skyworks:在Filter(滤波器)上比较差,跟松下有合资Filter工厂,2016年买下了这家公司的所有股权。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUNozyVQKuGgivRLV_FgttQKG8iRnbneWKidoK-5JQOQxbeEQovcgOw8VkdVkQCAJ1bWYKwg175nTyFDg_gMaUqLvr6tyjLUYyO__SQr529gmE48pPqa8qXvWn_qWL0neXkc7zMPtXFno/s586/v2-56a94f71a62f9052102861039241fb7b_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="299" data-original-width="586" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUNozyVQKuGgivRLV_FgttQKG8iRnbneWKidoK-5JQOQxbeEQovcgOw8VkdVkQCAJ1bWYKwg175nTyFDg_gMaUqLvr6tyjLUYyO__SQr529gmE48pPqa8qXvWn_qWL0neXkc7zMPtXFno/w625-h319/v2-56a94f71a62f9052102861039241fb7b_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Broadcom、Qorvo、Skyworks等等体现了这个行业不断兼并的过程,也正是不断的整并扩张逐渐形成了现在的产业格局。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><b style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">中国 RF 厂商入局</b></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">5G频谱主要是Sub-6G和mmWave(毫米波),全球主要国家/地区5G频谱分布不一样,中国现在开放的牌照都是Sub-6G,覆盖范围比较广,包括基站距离是500m-1000m,mmWave(毫米波)基站距离则是300m。以目前的射频来讲,GaAS砷化镓技术大部分可以满足5G里面Sub-6G的要求,中国主推Sub-6G,美国主推mmWave(毫米波)。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguMOViSYxS2w3N4WAOyqeXxS3Oy-P5TRV9rd1YVO4DFm8sEphxxpX9IOoiplXHWW3-ZrrHt9FT4FYQmzeRo4k2rQNjRg7Mhzx4L1YE52hR7O85ddAPbimDr9krKEhW8ZIdRbbkgiig8Zo/s506/v2-f7d8f3f2a729c6f36e1363d00baea10a_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="266" data-original-width="506" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguMOViSYxS2w3N4WAOyqeXxS3Oy-P5TRV9rd1YVO4DFm8sEphxxpX9IOoiplXHWW3-ZrrHt9FT4FYQmzeRo4k2rQNjRg7Mhzx4L1YE52hR7O85ddAPbimDr9krKEhW8ZIdRbbkgiig8Zo/w625-h329/v2-f7d8f3f2a729c6f36e1363d00baea10a_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; text-align: left; white-space: pre-wrap;">RF 主要有GaAS砷化镓技术和GaN氮化镓技术。2G/3G/4G时代,主要是GaAS砷化镓技术,其Bandwidth(带宽)的频谱范围在900MHz到3GHz;5G 时代, Bandwidth(带宽)在Sub-6G(3GHz-6GHz)的部分,主要使用GaAS砷化镓技术;mmWave (28GHz-52GHz)的部分,主要是GaN氮化镓技术。</span></div><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">一直以来,RF 领域的主要玩家集中在Skywork、Avago、Qorvo,现在中国厂商也开始逐渐出现在RF产业的各个领域,比如GaAS砷化镓技术部分,有三安集成、Vanchip(唯捷创芯)、长电科技;GaN氮化镓技术部分,有三安集成、苏州能讯、海思等等。不过目前GaN氮化镓的部分量产还比较少,GaAS砷化镓的部分较为成熟。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4o4_g8Pc1hDupVRQvgaFopWBOM3y8tp5s009HicRJ0fgCSyi6ukO4oghCxQfc_BgrNDlbuQcr5EN_lIV8QSCYXy8BLbPOV1Cb7B6j4jurCTLD6bv0hlFrSEafoPbodDs-2BEhvfJLSas/s514/v2-06941be303a460167ace7709f8f137c4_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="514" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4o4_g8Pc1hDupVRQvgaFopWBOM3y8tp5s009HicRJ0fgCSyi6ukO4oghCxQfc_BgrNDlbuQcr5EN_lIV8QSCYXy8BLbPOV1Cb7B6j4jurCTLD6bv0hlFrSEafoPbodDs-2BEhvfJLSas/w625-h344/v2-06941be303a460167ace7709f8f137c4_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">除了上述提到新入局的中国产厂商,全球现有RF领域的相关企业,并且从晶圆磊晶、IC设计、Foundry、封测、IDM方面做了分类。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">GaAS砷化镓技术领域涉及的企业:◆晶圆磊晶:IQE、全新、佳友化学、三安集成;◆IC设计:RF360、Murata、Airoha、Vanchip(2019年5月,MTK入股◆Vanchip);◆Foundry:稳懋、宏捷科、联颖、三安集成;◆封测:稳懋、日月光、讯芯、Carsem、长电科技、三安集成;◆IDM :Skyworks、Avago、Qorvo。GaN氮化镓技术领域涉及企业:◆晶圆磊晶:Kyma、IQE、佳友化学、三安集成;◆IC设计:Anadigics、MACOM、Microsemi、海思;◆Foundry:UMS、稳懋、苏州能讯、三安集成、封测、稳懋、Carsem、苏州能讯;◆IDM:Qorvo、Wolfspeed。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>RF PA供应链的变化</b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">从2G到3G、4G、5G,主流的厂商基本走在最前端。未来5G时代,主流RF供货商将逐步退出低毛利的4G市场。目前低阶的4G机种,大部分将会由紫光、Vanchip(MTK入股)、Airoha(被MTK收购)等厂商供应。</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">并且目前在4G低端的手机部分,中国厂商已经成为市场主流,在2G、3G、4G市场,中国厂商也有较好的市场空间。不过,目前中国在5G领域还是存在一定差距。</span> </p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPFUb61y6KCvPUVjQ2jDxYJpAVqSpPUJPTPKouhxLb98rWSuqOJNKx6CD1G76p3veXZKD5ksG8SN2bC_tVujWJTe2XJQTxKR95AhvjS8mlQgeDQvTaoJxZ9D5A-_rROxQ1xO6zYwAvFvs/s626/v2-88a3debb598875733e59148d06eb5ab2_720w.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="626" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPFUb61y6KCvPUVjQ2jDxYJpAVqSpPUJPTPKouhxLb98rWSuqOJNKx6CD1G76p3veXZKD5ksG8SN2bC_tVujWJTe2XJQTxKR95AhvjS8mlQgeDQvTaoJxZ9D5A-_rROxQ1xO6zYwAvFvs/w625-h344/v2-88a3debb598875733e59148d06eb5ab2_720w.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">总结</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.92; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 32pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">RF 产业链出现一定程度的整合之后,未来在高端的市场,原来三大射频厂商仍占主流位置,现在中国射频厂商,除了低阶市场,高阶市场也逐渐出现一些机会。一般高阶机种会选择集成程度比较高的产品,而目前在中低阶机种方面,中国厂商基本可以满足市场要求。(转载于知乎)</span></p><br /></span>Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-59076060857022496682019-02-05T20:32:00.001-08:002019-02-05T20:34:48.670-08:00看盘系列(二):洗盘庄家或基金洗盘的主要目的是为了降低拉升成本,也要洗掉短线投机者的浮动筹码,以便在下个拉升阶段有更多的胜算。像前一篇文章说分享的(<a href="https://skyisthelimitskyisthelimit.blogspot.com/2019/01/blog-post_30.html" target="_blank">https://skyisthelimitskyisthelimit.blogspot.com/2019/01/blog-post_30.html</a>),洗盘手法千变万化,可以下跌式洗,横盘式洗也可以边拉升边洗。<br>
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这次笔者就拿了一个向上洗盘的案列来分享。和上一篇,在不打扰庄家的前提下,笔者只提供裸图,读者也不必浪费时间去寻找是哪一家公司,学会了钓鱼的方法会更好。<br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm4NTWUu4m2t0sCmrzcLL_cp2uP0s_dAJjUxgB5Nti6jGkhkG_cAGaH5tVLy1ts9ege-N0jwer_v0_kXqKH7lPdM8Z1iIIZFCKeoTQcs36JgBxrDquLluXXvt4TL4-jPAzaVjq-SFWwIo/s1600/IMG_2231.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="768" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm4NTWUu4m2t0sCmrzcLL_cp2uP0s_dAJjUxgB5Nti6jGkhkG_cAGaH5tVLy1ts9ege-N0jwer_v0_kXqKH7lPdM8Z1iIIZFCKeoTQcs36JgBxrDquLluXXvt4TL4-jPAzaVjq-SFWwIo/s400/IMG_2231.PNG" width="400"></a></div>
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这个庄在第一个画红圈的地方开始了向上洗盘的法式,杀得凶,也拿了不少的筹码。虽然是洗,但是看得出这个庄有点急,一边像作图,一边想收票。所以整个趋势还是向上。然后在第二个画红圈的部分,更加大力度地洗,浮动的筹码也被收回了不少。接下来的走势,笔者就点到如此,在接下来的一个月内,笔者会把公司的图形走势发出来。</div>
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学习看盘洗盘的目的,是要为了不被庄家震出来,就如你或许曾经遇过的情况,一卖出手上的股票后,股价就一直往上,离你扬尘而去。这会是笔者最后一篇的看盘文章,因为这主题牵涉到了一些群体的利益。看盘是很个人的东西,靠个人的领悟力和性格,保持一颗清明的心,不求潮汐,只为千秋。</div>
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<h3 style="background-color: white; color: rgb(78, 40, 0); font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3></div>
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-84518766174989087752019-01-30T05:54:00.003-08:002019-01-30T05:54:48.098-08:00看盘系列(一): 洗盘 <u>看盘系列(一):洗盘</u><br />
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看盘是投资的一门必学技巧。着重基本面门派可能不认同。<br />
但是你在股市里久了,发现生意前景好,现金流健康,盈利越来越好的公司,你买入后股价总是在某个价位徘徊,而且还有可能越买越低,慢慢就失去了投资股票当时的初心。<br />
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股价是十之八九是人为,唯有了解人性,才能在股市这个大染缸继续生存。<br />
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也因为人性有别,看盘类似这样抽象的技巧,学得好不好,都是关系到个人投资者的性格和个人对盘感的领悟力。<br />
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这也解释了为什么有人买到上升趋势股,可以亏钱。也有买入下跌趋势股中,可以靠一小波段一小波段的反弹赚到钱。<br />
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在学习看盘前,读者应该了解本身的性格。不然,请远离股市这个弱者的泥潭。<br />
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谈回洗盘。洗盘的方法有很多,也千变万化,但是怎样变都好,庄家都会留下蛛丝马迹,每一次,每一笔的成交乃至扩大与每日的成交量,都会留下线索。<br />
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这次要谈的洗盘手法 (一),就从大的三个月图表看起。在为了不打扰庄家的前提下,提供的图表都是裸图。一下是一家公司的三个月走势图。这个是一个长庄股,庄家在一连串拉出了11根大小的阴烛,量低洗盘。笔者在这期间观察了买卖成交,这个基金型庄家只用了很少的票就把股价推下了一个价位,以此类推。直到底部出现高量,肉戏就结束了。在浮动筹码锁定后,就配合一些消息面,轻松的把股价推上。这些都是属于中短期的洗盘方式。在下跌中,要保持一颗清明的心,才能判断出真假和庄家操盘手法。这个庄家还有好戏要上演,在两个季度后,可以预见股价还是会上升(当然盘中还是会继续洗盘)。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIjzCbH1hpMQRRN3D6AlgStU5xr51swQP_xY9th8iJSoRDY7qVbYvEpQXTetOHG15Ur4LTBa2ZvDkeaAVfd21sAfe0qnsGwtDxyEd62epvZKqin9uUMULqm-CBy0FkF2v3-Leka739a2w/s1600/20190130_211808.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="1142" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIjzCbH1hpMQRRN3D6AlgStU5xr51swQP_xY9th8iJSoRDY7qVbYvEpQXTetOHG15Ur4LTBa2ZvDkeaAVfd21sAfe0qnsGwtDxyEd62epvZKqin9uUMULqm-CBy0FkF2v3-Leka739a2w/s640/20190130_211808.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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接下来还会分享洗盘系列,有兴趣学习的话,请加入<br />
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<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
<br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-3883660066999297862019-01-05T20:01:00.001-08:002019-01-05T20:04:27.073-08:00浅谈建筑业(系列一)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBIzVASaCWbau2au2M7a3yTPTyETdRFwtVo-qco6Ds_-XzvT_-mTfaYkzyOD8GP_gwNM_SZIHhgbafdAEk6QB5IF38R8k2BLhNy8B6OVgfqtU5jE0VXHxlpPxNu63RAEFKZJzIXKixNls/s1600/Construction_1516082494.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="900" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBIzVASaCWbau2au2M7a3yTPTyETdRFwtVo-qco6Ds_-XzvT_-mTfaYkzyOD8GP_gwNM_SZIHhgbafdAEk6QB5IF38R8k2BLhNy8B6OVgfqtU5jE0VXHxlpPxNu63RAEFKZJzIXKixNls/s400/Construction_1516082494.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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大马建筑行业很大很广,上市的建筑公司也有好几十家。在2019年里都会持续跟踪建筑行业。<br />
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笔者想分享自己在筛选大马建筑公司的几个条件,如下;<br />
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1)该选择拥有良好执行力的土著建筑公司。"新大马"政策的土著议程不变。土著公司在工程竞标中的竞争较少,可以维持应有的赚副。<br />
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2)建筑公司的姐妹公司/控股公司/股东是地产开发商,能够把建筑合约颁发给"自己人",所谓肥水不流外田。当然,选择这样的公司,股票投资散户需要对相关的公司管理层诚信有一定程度的了解,才可买入。<br />
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3) 建筑行业有周期性,所以选择的建筑公司需拥有建筑行业为本以外的业务,例如些地产,大道concession ,发电厂合约,REITs, 粽油业务等的辅助性业务。一定程度的多元化和能持续创造现金流的业务,有助于建筑公司在面对的经济循环周期或不可预测的突发事件可以安稳渡过难关。<br />
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4)拥有高额的建筑订单和拥有良好的现金流。建筑公司的债务因为行业性质的原因,债务都会高于其他的行业。如果选择买入建筑股,就需跟着建筑行业的标准来审查公司的财务状况。以消费类型行业的财政标准来判断建筑行业,是鸡蛋里挑骨头。<br />
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5)拥有专业的工程技术和竞标团队。这个标准只有在行业内的春江鸭能深入的了解,但也可以通过公司的财报做出判断。笔者的投资团队里有几个建筑业内人士,有助于笔者在判断建筑行业的大环境中有更精准的判断。<br />
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接下来,笔者会分享大部分建筑公司手头上的order book/工程合约和个别建筑公司的介绍。如有兴趣的读者可加入<br />
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<span style="color: #f48d1d; font-size: large; text-decoration-line: none;"><a href="http://t.me/skyis_thelimit" style="color: #f48d1d; text-decoration-line: none;">http://t.me/skyis_thelimit</a></span><br />
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<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-34593337642254254442018-12-03T04:21:00.003-08:002018-12-03T04:21:59.691-08:002018平地木年-英美烟草 (更新,修改加重走私货品法令)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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2018平地木年-英美烟草 (更新,修改走私货品法令)</div>
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中央政府和关税局拟改法令,卖走私烟酒的的罚款兼打鞭。<br />
<a href="http://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=1369663">http://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=1369663</a><br />
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而来临的星期一,一八年十二月三号Dewan Rakyat也会进行法令修改二读。</div>
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那么在这个法令通过后,会加重了罚款的部分。请看图文</div>
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这表示了售卖走私香烟,从以前的10到20倍走私货品市值的罚款,爆增至最少RM100k或不多于RM500k。试问看,现在市场上的小杂货店商人是否敢冒着风险售卖走私香烟呢?笔者得知,一包走私香烟的利润有大约RM 1.5,一条十盒包装的香烟就有RM15的利润。但是相较于如果被抓一次,在罚款最少RM100k,算了下,商家需要一共卖出66,600盒的走私烟才能“回本”,还不包过需要被鞭刑三下的代价。这盘卖走私烟的生意真的做不过。</div>
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跟着市场上的官方数据得知,走私烟占了整个香烟市场的63%。但是在最近这几个月关税局的执法下,相信走私烟的数目有所下滑。以下是在11月份的打击走私香烟行动后的记者发布会相片。</div>
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BAT会不会受益呢?</div>
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<h1 class="title-post entry-title" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; margin: 20px 0px 10px; position: relative;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Join us on Telegram: <a href="http://t.me/skyis_thelimit" style="color: #f48d1d;">http://t.me/skyis_thelimit</a></span></h1>
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<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
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<br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-30241565676098418612018-12-02T17:35:00.001-08:002018-12-02T17:37:52.101-08:00Gtronic的客户的新客户<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKw0etYqjgBXqd50JplN1cCywukoX3hHSXRHBc0Z36MPgkhM3LrFr3zC2OBrwnjBcP-7eM-JbhvLoONpLN6dE-oI1pnir-OJWkg8Cx5qDo23cP49sDWJkdp8DqXfSM0ghBOLh5o279HFg/s1600/Untitled77.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="865" data-original-width="939" height="367" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKw0etYqjgBXqd50JplN1cCywukoX3hHSXRHBc0Z36MPgkhM3LrFr3zC2OBrwnjBcP-7eM-JbhvLoONpLN6dE-oI1pnir-OJWkg8Cx5qDo23cP49sDWJkdp8DqXfSM0ghBOLh5o279HFg/s400/Untitled77.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Gtronic 其中一个客户是奥地利的 AMS AG,而这家专门提供传感器公司是在瑞士交易所挂牌上市。<br />
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AMS旗下的客户多达八千多家,而手机的传感器也占了公司很大的份儿。其中苹果手机就是旗下的大客户。</div>
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但最近的几个月,手机的脸部识别技术不再只是在苹果手机上可以看得到。Android旗下的两款旗舰手机米8和华为 Mate 20 Pro也采纳用了Face ID技术,而AMS 就是这两架手机传感器的供应商。</div>
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<a href="https://tech.sina.cn/t/2018-10-23/detail-ifxeuwws7273484.d.html?from=wap">https://tech.sina.cn/t/2018-10-23/detail-ifxeuwws7273484.d.html?from=wap</a></div>
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看看下这两款手机在18年第四个季度(不包括圣诞节期间销售量)的销售量如何。</div>
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<b><u>米8</u></b></div>
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<a href="https://awtmt.com/articles/3436524?from=wscn">https://awtmt.com/articles/3436524?from=wscn</a></div>
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<b><u>华为Mate 20 Pro</u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: sans-serif;">横扫欧洲</span></div>
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<a href="https://t.cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/6439925904/17fd9789000100cde9">https://t.cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/6439925904/17fd9789000100cde9</a></div>
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接下来,那么Gtronic的生意会不会好?</div>
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我不晓得,但是AMS在最新的营业额预估报告已经给了我答案。有兴趣的读者可以上网查询。</div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Join us on Telegram: <a href="http://t.me/skyis_thelimit" style="color: #f48d1d; text-decoration-line: none;">http://t.me/skyis_thelimit</a></span></h1>
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<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
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<br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-82038505127142851092018-12-01T01:40:00.000-08:002018-12-01T02:22:03.413-08:00浅谈AZRB<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTRlveCzWc3uPcOM8r75cYY42QpZ8KkjF9ZVKxYEdguwYDpWXqgzaUuafg1pPLHvk-Xakdekf8Ne15L5sKUrCY10ZCdO0fG-A9Es2-kh2HN5MloZgaEy6Phvnqmz6DVlHHiSS4NXS1Xlg/s1600/Untitled4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="98" data-original-width="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTRlveCzWc3uPcOM8r75cYY42QpZ8KkjF9ZVKxYEdguwYDpWXqgzaUuafg1pPLHvk-Xakdekf8Ne15L5sKUrCY10ZCdO0fG-A9Es2-kh2HN5MloZgaEy6Phvnqmz6DVlHHiSS4NXS1Xlg/s1600/Untitled4.png"></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg19x9fAnaqXOxstQIO6jq2e662824SV4oyMV0skKNXEqLlMKR8PJ24Xx5fJHl-PD8gQRuu63JYVuE3_GpZJAsoCny8q-rCg3JZJxxznKvXBbgNksSBMG2zUgWNfnFeDVaa6eaiNzUCaoM/s1600/Untitled5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="851" data-original-width="1287" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg19x9fAnaqXOxstQIO6jq2e662824SV4oyMV0skKNXEqLlMKR8PJ24Xx5fJHl-PD8gQRuu63JYVuE3_GpZJAsoCny8q-rCg3JZJxxznKvXBbgNksSBMG2zUgWNfnFeDVaa6eaiNzUCaoM/s400/Untitled5.png" width="400"></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">A</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">ZRB是一家拥有36年资历的公司,公司也</span>公布了2018年第三季度的业绩,每股EPS是0.59仙,Trailing EPS为2.6仙。</div>
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由于印尼盾兑换美元在过去的一年了从13500盾对1美元的价位狂跌至15200盾的价位,造成了AZRB在九个月的累积外汇亏损高达三千万,或5.6仙的账面亏损。</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihHMiB9JQH0yBNkWK9SS2MA-ZqRFd4iDomrm4rAqZp3fIVL-ATwWw8B88N4STOIoj3bHBXKY0N05REMQeh_wIOmXBeJlNfcbjaUF4eo_eWv6Q89F8zMjlljRTtjFPFrGXZoRl35AGiJTA/s1600/Untitled2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="867" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihHMiB9JQH0yBNkWK9SS2MA-ZqRFd4iDomrm4rAqZp3fIVL-ATwWw8B88N4STOIoj3bHBXKY0N05REMQeh_wIOmXBeJlNfcbjaUF4eo_eWv6Q89F8zMjlljRTtjFPFrGXZoRl35AGiJTA/s400/Untitled2.png" width="400"></a></div>
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但是在印尼国行今年六次升息的干预下,印尼盾止跌回升,来到现今14300的价位。预计在来临的第四个季度的报告,AZRB可以录下1000万至1200万的外汇盈利,或折合每股2.2仙(如排除12月14号的8送1红股后的股量)。</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbCoUtSyu2BYo3diwIZq7TMqmYQzfEQCkqRveuOZvn9mf35_jyhbeWbNOgIxqHVjGun8HE5IdNZv1xoU_-Mfcvst9x1mgFjGjAQTESGdPl7XGFnnIttx9FFQdVOfo8-Bu_OVHkrxz61bc/s1600/Untitled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="853" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbCoUtSyu2BYo3diwIZq7TMqmYQzfEQCkqRveuOZvn9mf35_jyhbeWbNOgIxqHVjGun8HE5IdNZv1xoU_-Mfcvst9x1mgFjGjAQTESGdPl7XGFnnIttx9FFQdVOfo8-Bu_OVHkrxz61bc/s400/Untitled.png" width="400"></a></div>
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截至九月份,公司手头的合约还剩下32亿,足以让公司忙碌3到4年。EKVE大道经过一波三折后,终于解决了施工造成环境污染的问题。公司也在今年10月时,现任工程部部长也为公司主持了EKVE大道的Man Hours Without LTI的安全仪式。</div>
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<img border="0" data-original-height="899" data-original-width="1599" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitXLdRxBVtT0mc4Jsj3PKSfbHJF3_IcsdbFQVtC3-KtCYQg0AbxH-2vjUhDlo_V_4y-RNWpdDfkvI3badwPMKNpyv5sH5ROr4g-4iXMGtseKbUUSpgeJiuXAY7uUkygMxYAihghzzIXrY/s400/1.jpeg" width="400"></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24w2AcCqc7k&feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24w2AcCqc7k&feature=youtu.be</a></div>
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大道的工程进展顺利,也已经开始公开招标后期建造几个收费站的阶段,将于原订2019年正式开通EKVE。预计车流量为每天100千至140千,特许经营权合约为期50年。</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAQXP-xmm8_PDB2YufEZHq7s3ZJTXTWDF8uRGBTuJsRTYO7HJEGzFDUMBzhjO2S9HRIvaibx0MxvIxizM6Q67uhj-j3AbUF1APv_jrenYGhdmm8jaFbaIGZLHXxj0ytbWN06htcjXm1Ew/s1600/12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="678" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAQXP-xmm8_PDB2YufEZHq7s3ZJTXTWDF8uRGBTuJsRTYO7HJEGzFDUMBzhjO2S9HRIvaibx0MxvIxizM6Q67uhj-j3AbUF1APv_jrenYGhdmm8jaFbaIGZLHXxj0ytbWN06htcjXm1Ew/s400/12.jpg" width="282"></a></div>
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公司也有一个为与关丹的大马国际伊斯兰大学(IIUM)<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">医疗中心21年特许经营权</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">,。目前还可稳收20年,每年可带来稳定的税后净利润两千两百万的盈利,折合每股4.1仙,以现在32仙的股价,单单以这项收入来计算,PE是7.8。也由于EKVE大道(十五亿的工程)和医疗中心的发展项目</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">(整个计划合约为40亿令吉,以</span><span style="color: #181919; font-family: , "lato" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">design, build, lease, maintain & transfer的形式经营</span><span style="color: #181919; font-family: , "lato" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: italic; text-align: justify;">)</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">而累积了二十几亿的债务。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL0njpw3ZawgyB6RW9zirQMTjtp9B7yzkJmuB9F3bwGQQmSGjsZoY39zgY_UVk6dbQizYMKBstFh7JmYnhyphenhyphenW6jEnqf5koMjXY-_9kjlBpt8E4gsg57-RT4_fI8FqaHo5BS8xrS0jVr6zE/s1600/mukadpn.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="176" data-original-width="960" height="116" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL0njpw3ZawgyB6RW9zirQMTjtp9B7yzkJmuB9F3bwGQQmSGjsZoY39zgY_UVk6dbQizYMKBstFh7JmYnhyphenhyphenW6jEnqf5koMjXY-_9kjlBpt8E4gsg57-RT4_fI8FqaHo5BS8xrS0jVr6zE/s640/mukadpn.jpg" width="640"></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">公司拥有9579公顷位于印尼Kalimantan的棕油树园,大约60%为成熟树龄。新的棕油提炼厂也在于今年建好,每个小时的棕油提炼速度为60MT/hr。基于这个原因,棕油业务也成功的成功转亏为盈。印尼的棕油出口屡破新高,也带动了他的棕油业务。但是其他位于大马的棕油公司只有被印尼棕油公司挨打的份。由于印尼盾的贬值,造成了三个季度累积了三千万unreliased forex loss,但印尼盾在这个季度的回升,公司可以reserve不少的账面亏损。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_5HR1zH1KepH75qROXOOS6j3I31pnzV2Q2vDtG02jNgVsOYLj1pmAViFCEanYPLrg-xkX4dAbwVpVQeMb1Cqt2steNrK056BxEBU_d5RWeIQKE2N6U0Qfgwu5_vkQxbV08tbwaRSpkcw/s1600/Untitled3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="611" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_5HR1zH1KepH75qROXOOS6j3I31pnzV2Q2vDtG02jNgVsOYLj1pmAViFCEanYPLrg-xkX4dAbwVpVQeMb1Cqt2steNrK056BxEBU_d5RWeIQKE2N6U0Qfgwu5_vkQxbV08tbwaRSpkcw/s640/Untitled3.png" width="467"></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">以现在价位投资,下跌空间有限,而且很多基金是30大股东。相信他们的买入价最少在RM0.70以上。</span><br>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , "arial" , "helvetica" , fantasy , sans-serif;">公司也在十一月三十号通过了8送1的红股计划,ex-date为十二月十四号。</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-57897349531923715582018-05-28T21:02:00.000-07:002018-05-28T22:14:26.957-07:002018平地木年-英美烟草<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6u8RReWAyZQdfxH7EEl8FoVt7-i9xQWnug4C3H0QJC_MdX98l7wgTyCoLljhO_yikKNC4Fjj1soW2NBqOi48RSUoRihrtWJCIaLa86N39Q0z3wXuBkGaQq3GnxtEUa__LWqS9y2e-XLk/s1600/Logo+British+American+Tobacco.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="1286" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6u8RReWAyZQdfxH7EEl8FoVt7-i9xQWnug4C3H0QJC_MdX98l7wgTyCoLljhO_yikKNC4Fjj1soW2NBqOi48RSUoRihrtWJCIaLa86N39Q0z3wXuBkGaQq3GnxtEUa__LWqS9y2e-XLk/s320/Logo+British+American+Tobacco.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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随着509大马政权的替换, 股票市场也迎来了一次的大转变。其中与前朝政府密切的官联公司的股价也跌跌不息,到了今天也还没出现缓下来的情况。但随着政权的替换,也为投资者带来了契机。其中一间收益的公司就是英美烟草,随着消费税的取消和潜在的打贪行动带动了英美烟草的股价上扬。股价从历年的RM 22.46的新低冲到了28/5/2018的RM 31.78。<br />
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哪英美烟草到底的潜在价值是多少呢?就以一些市场上可得到的数据来做个推算。<br />
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根据最新的英美烟草的2018第一季度报告,大马的香烟市场上的63%为走私烟,合法香烟的市场占有率为37%。在合法香烟的37%里,英美烟草的市场份额占了54.7%。2018第一季度的营业额为6.37亿。<br />
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所以从这几个数据推出来,如果大马有100%合法香烟的话,那么合法香烟市场的营业额为125亿。当然这是最完美的情况,市场上都会有走私香烟的情况。<br />
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假设新政府能够致力于打贪和加强沿海一带执法,把走私香烟的份额降低到大马前几年的35%, 英美烟草的盈利会是多少呢?换算成65%的合法烟,市场额为81.25亿。<br />
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假设英美香烟的市场占有率不变,或维持在54.7%的份额以上,利润率为18-20%,,私烟降低到35%, 英美烟草每年的盈利可达到8亿到9亿之间,换算为每股盈利至少RM 2.8到RM 3.15之间。历年来市场都给与英美烟草PE 18.8x的估值,所以未来合理股价为 RM52.6 到 RM59.2之间。<br />
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当然这个预测只是保守的涵盖了存量的转变(部分私烟转为合法烟),没加入增量的可能性(例如消费税的减低,推出小包装香烟等等的政策)。接下来股价是否能回到RM70的价钱还需取决于政府是否能持续的良好施政和沿海一带地加强执法,以还回50亿令吉的香烟税收于国库。<br />
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*<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
<br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-88160203600347118952017-10-18T02:05:00.004-07:002017-10-18T03:55:26.815-07:00巨盛-泰山不让土壤,故能成其大<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcGkaia3M7bwTofqQeE_Vtxdl8MZiQFA4wJsESe3PmPbjPkAcFyDbhd3Qauf9N6KCx2NOuVjEUTw8PzMo6Wg6A7e2nrkj71434wfddttpwQ17PKXlZabB7gsTI3XuSgn3z7OLQGgV6mZI/s1600/Untitled2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="660" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcGkaia3M7bwTofqQeE_Vtxdl8MZiQFA4wJsESe3PmPbjPkAcFyDbhd3Qauf9N6KCx2NOuVjEUTw8PzMo6Wg6A7e2nrkj71434wfddttpwQ17PKXlZabB7gsTI3XuSgn3z7OLQGgV6mZI/s400/Untitled2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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首先在从行业和生意角度来探讨Ge-Shen前,笔者想与大家分享自己投资上经历的一些经验及学习。<br />
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今天要讲的就是<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Don't</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> Try to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Time the Market</span></span></b><br />
如果想从巴菲特的关于这个投资理念,可以游览<br />
<a href="http://www.banbijiang.com/book/story.php?id=73261">http://www.banbijiang.com/book/story.php?id=73261</a><br />
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也许Ge-Shen新的领导人Mr Chan Choong Kong是个前基金经理大约也明白到这个don't try to time the market的道理,所以很多与公司业务有关的客户资料,客户颁发的奖项等一切与我们散户投资者想得到的蛛丝马迹都不能够在Ge-Shen的官方网站获得。所以我们也不能从中预先得到Ge-Shen的一些上市公司客户业绩来预测Ge-Shen财政好坏。不过这对笔者来说已不是一个大问题,因为管理层已经通过收购两间公司,Poly Plas 和Demand Option来扩大它客户群,单一大客户的问题已经获得解决。这可以从今年第二个季度报告可以看出营业额与盈利都比往年更加出色和稳定。<br />
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笔者不在Plastic Injection 行业工作,但是笔者的大学同学及一些朋友是从事这个行业,通过与他们的交谈,看到了Ge-Shen未来的光芒。通常上半年塑料业者都是忙于做R&D,接订单和自造模具直到下半年六月到九月开始公司才大量生产塑料产品来应对下半年九月到十二月的消费品购买旺季,而九月到十二月这个季节,公司也忙于出货给<span style="color: red;"><b>国外</b></span>汽车行业,因为人们都习惯在隔年的年初买入汽车。这就解释了为什么管理层有提到下半年是传统强季。<br />
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但是如果你给予这个下半年公司业绩会走强的原因而买入Ge-Shen,那就有可能会错过与一间正跳跃性业绩成长的公司插肩而过。因为Ge-Shen的其中一个客户群,医疗行业客户是没有季节性质的,而且赚幅高,入门槛也高,因为公司要拿到制造医疗产品相关的证书ISO 13485也不简单,所以公司都必须管理得很好才能确保证书被更新。此外制造医疗产品证书须相对长的时间才能获得,很多规格比较大的塑料业公司都选择以一个较快的手法,就是收购同行来扩大客户群。Ge-Shen就是通过这方式来收购Poly Plas。<br />
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除了继续在塑料本行继续扩充壮大之外,公司还很有远见的朝<span style="color: red;"><b>One Stop Integrated Vertical Service </b></span> 这个方向前进。这个可以说是现在塑料业者的大趋势来做产业升级,新加坡很多相关塑料业者现在也在积极寻找机会进军,但是Ge-Shen已经<span style="color: red;"><b>跑在前头了</b></span>,可喜可贺。备注One Stop Integrated Vertical Service见(图一)是帮助客户从产品的原始设计,到制造模具,生产配件到组装配件为成品,赚幅高,利润好。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio92QOvRAGheCba5pJ1tSkBPPeB6Tt1JfRz9i07fP0rY0Rd32KKMSeZhC_ogwyk7h22WafZLi4MPiB0ojJ7LOT2Y8khHg5u4NaNOL3avcbpW1sDnAKriaEi768Ym66CEyjzR0RKktX6Ko/s1600/333.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="707" height="556" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio92QOvRAGheCba5pJ1tSkBPPeB6Tt1JfRz9i07fP0rY0Rd32KKMSeZhC_ogwyk7h22WafZLi4MPiB0ojJ7LOT2Y8khHg5u4NaNOL3avcbpW1sDnAKriaEi768Ym66CEyjzR0RKktX6Ko/s640/333.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(图一)</td></tr>
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Ge-Shen一路来的业务转型来之不易,但是管理层通过了上个季度的业绩来说明公司的决策是对的。加上中国产业的升级,公司可以从中受益,希望Ge-Shen可以继续巩固及扩充大马与越南的业务。<br />
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总结:花若盛開,蝴蝶自來,你若盛开,清风自来,人若精彩,天自安排 。<br />
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<b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-49574272099989261102017-10-17T09:32:00.001-07:002017-10-18T03:56:15.263-07:00浅谈大马纸包装行业上一篇文章笔者分享了大马上游造纸厂业的背景和数据资料,以让读者能够先从纸业的上游大概了解整个纸包装行业的运作。<br />
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这一篇会提到瓦楞盒制造的简介和纸包装业者的运作,及国际纸价上涨的影响。<br />
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*包装业者(Orna Paper, PPHB, Box-Pak, Master-Pack)<br />
*上游造纸业者 (Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Pascorp Paper)<br />
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瓦楞纸到纸箱的制造过程如下,<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjowoqObFCkcT3u1G0L0q2bMDt7ui7ZOPweLAyzBQlbZ-p1sXXzrs-M1-ZzsQZRsHnFDKQLfO4ZVy20uiaRz6aJxsO6wwW08fwyFs0K9BrogO9nISaSaii13YeV_g1HIX-R8ECJNOsSR4/s1600/hpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjowoqObFCkcT3u1G0L0q2bMDt7ui7ZOPweLAyzBQlbZ-p1sXXzrs-M1-ZzsQZRsHnFDKQLfO4ZVy20uiaRz6aJxsO6wwW08fwyFs0K9BrogO9nISaSaii13YeV_g1HIX-R8ECJNOsSR4/s1600/hpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"> </a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjowoqObFCkcT3u1G0L0q2bMDt7ui7ZOPweLAyzBQlbZ-p1sXXzrs-M1-ZzsQZRsHnFDKQLfO4ZVy20uiaRz6aJxsO6wwW08fwyFs0K9BrogO9nISaSaii13YeV_g1HIX-R8ECJNOsSR4/s1600/hpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjowoqObFCkcT3u1G0L0q2bMDt7ui7ZOPweLAyzBQlbZ-p1sXXzrs-M1-ZzsQZRsHnFDKQLfO4ZVy20uiaRz6aJxsO6wwW08fwyFs0K9BrogO9nISaSaii13YeV_g1HIX-R8ECJNOsSR4/s1600/hpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"> </a>首先,包装业者会向上游造纸厂购买Corrugated Medium, Kraft Liner/Liner (图一)作为原料并运回厂做加工(图二)成为瓦楞纸(图三,图四,)。过后包装业者根据客户的要求切割标准尺寸的瓦楞纸,最后进行彩色打印(如客户有此需求)。有兴趣进一步详细了解瓦楞纸制造的读者可以观看 <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5nNUPNvWAw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5nNUPNvWAw</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDcZ56ZkpaBpmz5vivt6Mf_Ca2ob8bYbq4BiOLPEqmoTEcL_HSs-YIRBE7EtXU5giDAhDPGL8BV5d0lkG4q9MPbzRIUljbxJSDPWIXU_5nl1RV3f2tstmShGzOsr9lxsohQL4bWj4I0gY/s1600/Untitled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="699" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDcZ56ZkpaBpmz5vivt6Mf_Ca2ob8bYbq4BiOLPEqmoTEcL_HSs-YIRBE7EtXU5giDAhDPGL8BV5d0lkG4q9MPbzRIUljbxJSDPWIXU_5nl1RV3f2tstmShGzOsr9lxsohQL4bWj4I0gY/s320/Untitled.png" width="279" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(图一): <a href="https://www.gspp.com.my/product.html">https://www.gspp.com.my/product.html</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQrOTJvWzNuUIJVYf_o4uMp38jybfflvGEQFw6Q6x1H09Bf0xpYdQaPSjtt8jsBii64N1gj_esJswEy2mIRv1u9e_mS5sspHqAZnZZR9rvYTYYs-77wbSF00y-t1dwBg0O-NEiWUarGpA/s1600/coru.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="179" data-original-width="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQrOTJvWzNuUIJVYf_o4uMp38jybfflvGEQFw6Q6x1H09Bf0xpYdQaPSjtt8jsBii64N1gj_esJswEy2mIRv1u9e_mS5sspHqAZnZZR9rvYTYYs-77wbSF00y-t1dwBg0O-NEiWUarGpA/s1600/coru.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(图二):<a href="http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html">http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html</a></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8aKQHknLxgQFCAxgHSG_uO_1gAfi7HAddlLVNgWJKh_d3p6xDycnHe2xmypo1XwFwechz9PfrJt3J-2Kid1K3tRSMTiGzNF0Xl4nvXNdX7g_ypg5hiK-dXwXofYrphGhcBlHA6w8OHfw/s1600/%25E5%2595%258A%25E5%2595%258Ahpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="125" data-original-width="356" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8aKQHknLxgQFCAxgHSG_uO_1gAfi7HAddlLVNgWJKh_d3p6xDycnHe2xmypo1XwFwechz9PfrJt3J-2Kid1K3tRSMTiGzNF0Xl4nvXNdX7g_ypg5hiK-dXwXofYrphGhcBlHA6w8OHfw/s320/%25E5%2595%258A%25E5%2595%258Ahpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div>
(图三): <a href="http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html">http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html</a></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPm1ui1y6-dN7zXIwrK1BShNH2mSzoS76v9rwdBaOVmV15-054tKa-jarwOM1ZRQ-S9sKh3MkZIjtU8W8k70IDUu7-DBXxTHl2FgxcUseYA-TtfAU0fvPqNryMND0mCJFB32_3LpFa6I4/s1600/types-of-corrugated-300x276.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="276" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPm1ui1y6-dN7zXIwrK1BShNH2mSzoS76v9rwdBaOVmV15-054tKa-jarwOM1ZRQ-S9sKh3MkZIjtU8W8k70IDUu7-DBXxTHl2FgxcUseYA-TtfAU0fvPqNryMND0mCJFB32_3LpFa6I4/s1600/types-of-corrugated-300x276.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(图四):<a href="http://www.packsize.com/know-your-different-types-of-corrugated-cardboard/">http://www.packsize.com/know-your-different-types-of-corrugated-cardboard/</a></td></tr>
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包装业者要如何提高的Profit Margin,最主要还是以订单量的大小<span style="color: red;"><b>(<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">economies</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> of </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">scale & capacity utilization)</span></span></b></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">,</span>效率<span style="color: red;"><b>(efficiency)</b></span>和 来取胜。订单量越大,机器的设置时间就能够缩短,效率就提升和降低成本。然而至于能不能通过Cost Pass-Through来提高盈利也就牵制于客户的合作关系,货品的质量,发货时间,Payment Term等等因素。<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>最后一个杀手锏</b></span>就是包装业者能否向上游造纸厂拿到价钱相对合理的原料货源。有这一方面货源成本优势的公司除了已经下市包装业者的 HPI Resources和 GS Paper and Packaging (均属于Oji Paper旗下),另一间就是属于Muda Paper Mills旗下的Federal Packages Sdn Bhd(<a href="http://www.federalpack.com.my/">http://www.federalpack.com.my/</a>)。HPI Resources, GS Paper Packaging和 Federal Packages Sdn Bhd均能向自己的母公司(也就是上游造纸厂)拿到成本相对低廉的货源。<br />
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当然其他的包装业者也可从国外如印尼,越南和中国入口原料,但碍于马币的相对弱势和越南与中国也同样面对瓦楞纸短缺,所以本地包装业者还是倾向于本地的造纸厂拿货。最近的七月份,中国包装业者更向大马及越南造纸厂大量收购瓦楞纸以致出现当地货源价格上涨的问题。最近十月越南市场更有消息传出因中国包装业者的大量抢购,造成越南包装业者面对苦无原料开工的窘境。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbIO-rx-6NPn8IWGlCzzux4PlN9LKfS4p7sDLgfXuvA2G73NEREt1CWjcWqDe9rq9q4s5fIGfeutojzybKbpalb3ZNk6ELyN7ut9FkeT9JdbQl4qjZQrJXAAGZTgSayiw8LOm54AmL-X4/s1600/hpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="811" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbIO-rx-6NPn8IWGlCzzux4PlN9LKfS4p7sDLgfXuvA2G73NEREt1CWjcWqDe9rq9q4s5fIGfeutojzybKbpalb3ZNk6ELyN7ut9FkeT9JdbQl4qjZQrJXAAGZTgSayiw8LOm54AmL-X4/s400/hpm_0000_0001_0_img0079.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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虽然原料价钱上涨了,但是<b><span style="color: red;">下半年通常是包装业者的传统强季</span></b>,部分包装业者也有能力把额外的成本转嫁给客户。例如Orna Paper在季度报告就提到了他们成功把成本上涨转让给客户。Master-Pack也在最新季度报告提到了他们通过提高出货量和售价来进一步提升盈利。<br />
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笔者认为大马的瓦楞纸比起国外还是有优势的,因为外国货源的确是紧张和价钱也比大马高。从METS在八月份数据得知瓦楞纸原料外国入口量在下降,而瓦楞纸成品的出口量却持续增加。这说明了两个原因,<br />
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1. 包装业者纷纷转向本地造纸厂拿货。双方都得到好处, 包装业者可以拿到价格相对便宜的本地货,造纸厂生意额也增加了。<br />
2. 包装业者货源充足有能力把瓦楞纸成品出口,赚取更好的利润。<br />
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总结:<br />
这次纸价上扬的赢家肯定是上游造纸业者(Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Pascorp Paper),因为他们拥有控制价钱的话语权 <b><span style="color: red;">Price Setter</span></b>。 作为 <span style="color: red;"><b>Price Taker</b></span>的包装业者(Orna Paper, PPHB, Box-Pak, Master-Pack)则需要通过本身工厂大小的规格和一系列的努力来控制成本以便能够在竞争的市场胜出。<br />
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<span style="font-size: medium;">Join us on Telegram: <a href="http://t.me/skyis_thelimit" style="color: #f48d1d; text-decoration-line: none;">http://t.me/skyis_thelimit</a></span></h1>
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: large;">以上文章纯属分享,并没有买卖建议</b></h3>
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<br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-37409176261027281242017-10-03T01:24:00.002-07:002017-10-18T03:56:29.726-07:00浅谈大马造纸业<div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span class="" id="result_box" lang="zh-CN"><span class="">資匯周刊这期报道了</span></span></span>造<span class="" style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">纸和瓦楞纸包装行业,并与最近火红的</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">钢铁行业做比较。因此想借此机会在进一步探索大马的造纸业的前景和它与中国的供给侧改革的影响。</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">这篇文章只对纸业的上游做分析,并不包含中下游的业务。当然有些上游公司也包含了一些中下游业务,不过不在重点讨论之内。</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>马来西亚的四大纸厂</u></b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><u>1. Muda Paper Mill</u></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQSu1GnVudqqEJQaIeK4ew53leZ14gGXitPONcMB2jVH8PFdBliMy0gq6vuqjDCQxqk2EANMsXeZ9-bY6zgyjj3ZQ4TiQBred1pp6tryCzsK7f9uTEsQ9OiEL9ovCJgzv32Su4JznUcA/s1600/Muda.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: blue;"><img border="0" data-original-height="125" data-original-width="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQSu1GnVudqqEJQaIeK4ew53leZ14gGXitPONcMB2jVH8PFdBliMy0gq6vuqjDCQxqk2EANMsXeZ9-bY6zgyjj3ZQ4TiQBred1pp6tryCzsK7f9uTEsQ9OiEL9ovCJgzv32Su4JznUcA/s1600/Muda.png" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">最大型的造纸厂,一间工厂位于Kajang和另一间位于北部北海的厂。两间厂合起来的总生产量为490,000MT,为大马造纸厂的龙头老大,也是唯一一间上市的公司。主要产品为</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">瓦楞纸,</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">就是我们平常看到的褐色盒子的原材料</span></span><span style="color: blue;">。</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><u>2. GS Paper & Packaging,HPI (Group of Oji Paper)</u></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">位于雪兰莪万津的工厂,被日本的Oji Paper Group集团在2010年收购。2011年Oji Paper Group收购了上市公司HPI Resorces,本身的产量大约66,000MT产能。加上GS Paper </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">本身的</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">282,000MT,</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">总产能为348,000MT.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">主要产品为</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">瓦楞纸</span></span><span style="color: blue;">。</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><u>3. Pascorp Paper Industries Sdn Bhd</u></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">一间位于彭亨文东由彭亨州政府控制的工厂,年产量为300,000MT,</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">主要产品为</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">瓦楞纸</span></span><span style="color: blue;">。</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><u>4. Sabah Forest Industries</u></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga3QcCs79VdQPyFaB4ckn3e-w-4QrD_AD__Y8p_F500kp_3d_dsR_Vs_v3uAA6df1dGkfxszDmmTEgoTXHGIYEqCdSo4x9Z-8jiJUBuCwgBL-gQweflKsDEgY1svelZ-VN8dHJ8u5hWA0/s1600/sfi.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: blue;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="488" height="113" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga3QcCs79VdQPyFaB4ckn3e-w-4QrD_AD__Y8p_F500kp_3d_dsR_Vs_v3uAA6df1dGkfxszDmmTEgoTXHGIYEqCdSo4x9Z-8jiJUBuCwgBL-gQweflKsDEgY1svelZ-VN8dHJ8u5hWA0/s320/sfi.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">前身为Lion Forest Industries,在2007年以9.45</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">亿的价钱卖给印度的Avanth Group</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">作为还债的用途</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">。而在于2015年Avanth Group</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">以5</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">亿</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">美金</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">转手出售给Pandawa Sakti,</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">马来西亚一间</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">私人公司.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">这价钱包含了一块288,138 Ha的树林种植土地和从120,000MT到240,000MT产能升级</span></span><span style="color: blue;">。</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">主要产品为白色文具纸张,主要出口到中东和非洲国家。</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue;">中国环境政策的影响,加强对造纸业的监管</span></u><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">中国双十一将至,市场上严缺纸箱。因为受到于中国禁止入口洋垃圾的政策,中国纸厂在缺乏入口废纸的大环境下,苦苦面对下游商的堆积如山的订单却无法生产。所以在过去马来西亚的包装中下游业者向中国纸商拿货的情况一去不复返。你可以在很多上市的中下游公司的季度文告可以发现几乎每家包装业者都转向本地纸厂拿货了。Muda Paper也在他们的年度季度报告提到了这一点,如下。</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">英媒:中国禁止进口“洋垃圾” 世界都慌了</span></h1>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/press-review-41348959">http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/press-review-41348959</a></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">双十一旺季将至。中国电商陷纸箱缺货大危机</span>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://sinchew.com.my/node/1683272/%E5%8F%8C11%E6%97%BA%E5%AD%A3%E5%B0%86%E8%87%B3%EF%BC%8E">http://sinchew.com.my/node/1683272/%E5%8F%8C11%E6%97%BA%E5%AD%A3%E5%B0%86%E8%87%B3%EF%BC%8E</a></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">中国电商陷纸箱缺货最大的受益者当然是前三位的</span><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">瓦楞纸</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif;">纸厂,因为第一中国货源减少加上价钱提高,所以本地包装业者选择不从中国入口。第二因为中国禁止洋垃圾入口,大马造纸厂可以以更低价入口作为生产瓦楞纸的废纸。所以在这时候的大环境是非常有利于马来西亚的造纸厂,不过能够参股的就只有Muda Paper Mills 而已。</span><br />
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-53874652554588872192017-09-06T01:59:00.002-07:002017-09-06T07:13:43.786-07:00Southern steel Q1FY18 EPS Estimation<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs33vE1KqadbIJg6lJpFgyZtB7kxXL789C1oPeqZR1RxBa0X0LTNCPGLqD9KmoNrMgxL6KYnM2nzZrndvBa-IJanS51qwuz2j3X2MCZDyK7b1H5UF-l2DNGhWD4ludByxoJDtNaYTwwMs/s1600/logo-ssg-web.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="136" data-original-width="640" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs33vE1KqadbIJg6lJpFgyZtB7kxXL789C1oPeqZR1RxBa0X0LTNCPGLqD9KmoNrMgxL6KYnM2nzZrndvBa-IJanS51qwuz2j3X2MCZDyK7b1H5UF-l2DNGhWD4ludByxoJDtNaYTwwMs/s320/logo-ssg-web.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ssteel Q1FY18 EPS forecast</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Assumption: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">a.All Raw material were imported and in USD settlement<br />b.First In, First Out type of asset-management and valuation method.<br />c.All Raw Material and Scrap iron secured in Q4FY17 to be used in Q1FY18.<br />d.Imported scrap iron price, Rear Average Selling Price of Rebar are referred to Malaysia Government Official Website. Mean Value to be considered.<br />e.Number of Additional of Loan stock conversion (date: 6th September)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">f.Tax issue</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">1.To find out Fixed Cost on top of Imported Scrap Iron Price (Based on Q3 QR)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Q3FY17 (Jan - March 2017) Average Scrap Iron Imported=<b>RM1362/T</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Q4FY17 (April- June 2017) Average Selling Price=<b>RM1909/T</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">From Ssteel latest Q4FY17 financial report, company had delivered below expectation result of the LBT (Loss before Tax) of -8 million.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We can presume the cost of ssteel including operating expenses, admin costs, finance costs, tax and etc to be exactly at RM1909/T (Q4FY17 Average Selling Price)+ additional RM25/T of steel to compensate 8 million tax rebate.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As such, fixed cost per tonne of steel was RM1909+RM25-RM1362=<b>RM572</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2.To find out Q1FY18 Profit </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Q4FY17 (April-June 2017) Average Scrap Iron Imported=<b>RM1176/T</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Q1FY18 (July- September 2017)Average Selling Price=<b>RM2240/T</b>, Assuming Rebar continue trading at the price of RM2500. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In fact,on 6th September 2017,price of certain rebar size is start from RM2600. Give RM100 discount to compensate in case any price drops in remaining September</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Assume bring over fixed cost of RM572 to Q1FY18 + Increase price of graphite electrode of RM25/kg.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Profit for every tonne of Rebar during Q1FY18 =RM2240-RM1176-RM572-RM25=<b>RM 467/T</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Annual Ssteel Billet Capacity= 1.5 million Tonnes </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Quarter Capacity to be at, 375000 Tonnes </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Q1FY18 Profit to be at 375000 x RM 467= RM 175125000 or RM 175.1 million</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">EPS Q1FY2018=175125000/430934800=<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>RM 0.406</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Accumulating EPS=0.406+0.013+0.0754+0.0867=RM 0.58</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Current Price Rm2.07, CU PE= 3.56</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ssteel is on the way marching to its 2008 glory day (Single Quarter earning of RM 0.48), History will Repeat itself.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4043085" target="_blank">http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4043085</a></span><br />
<br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-51483844533390496002017-05-03T08:22:00.002-07:002017-05-07T05:36:20.593-07:00The "Blue Sky" in China and the Rising Sun in Malaysia (Part 2 of 2)<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Paper Mills in Malaysia, <span style="color: red;">MUDA HOLDINGS BHD</span><span style="color: red;">, </span><span style="color: red;">is benefiting from "Blue Sky" Policy in China</span></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><u><b>1.Why? Shut down of Paper Mills in China</b></u></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Paper mill is one of the affected industries in China, due to its high waste water discharged to environment. Paper mills in China is forced to shut down periodically. Up to date, <span style="color: red;"><b>1/3 of paper mills production located in ZheJiang are idle</b></span>, the supply of papers is cut down by at least 30 to 40%. While demand in China is remain high for their mainland internal consumption only. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">With reduced supply of raw paper, the price of paper has continued to rise.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">Since November 2016, 16 paper manufacturers </span><span style="color: red;"><b>raised their prices by 100 yuan to 600 yuan per ton</b></span><span style="color: #333333;">.</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLltVlmJnN_R35WK96XcMZpt6UuAmxcQXiW6094z2ScXtTONN5LMsZoSBrT2lcF3g9JWO7Vwdvy-L9FafpWU_-JCXh1GnIzaw5BsnmfiYJoFx9462Z6YtjnF-zgOy6hooYcfubLZ4e0z8/s1600/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLltVlmJnN_R35WK96XcMZpt6UuAmxcQXiW6094z2ScXtTONN5LMsZoSBrT2lcF3g9JWO7Vwdvy-L9FafpWU_-JCXh1GnIzaw5BsnmfiYJoFx9462Z6YtjnF-zgOy6hooYcfubLZ4e0z8/s640/Untitled.jpg" width="539" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>Quoted from: <a href="http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=178282">http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=178282</a></i></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz1V1i4Hx2WOz6m7mYgWhR3Dzg-TAnIxpQVW-C2Fd3ZE6mSotTKVEIY2lOrpIyhwszRyEwnzXuGG7O5Eq90_RBUZ-uzMVRIGTYea70nR1g_yRdzGhCV-n243e2cwuwUMz51NhYt5SCQ9M/s1600/1b5003b2-7a66-49d1-9da7-96f6898a2841.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz1V1i4Hx2WOz6m7mYgWhR3Dzg-TAnIxpQVW-C2Fd3ZE6mSotTKVEIY2lOrpIyhwszRyEwnzXuGG7O5Eq90_RBUZ-uzMVRIGTYea70nR1g_yRdzGhCV-n243e2cwuwUMz51NhYt5SCQ9M/s640/1b5003b2-7a66-49d1-9da7-96f6898a2841.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>Quoted from <a href="http://www.chinapaper.net/news/show-22163.html">http://www.chinapaper.net/news/show-22163.html</a></i></span><br />
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<u style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2.Why? Another Major Incident in USA</b></u><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Other than China, one of the<span style="color: red;"> Major paper mills manufacturer in USA has faced the production disruption</span> due to explosion and affected the paper worldwide supply.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8q2ePIMJyy8cXO_SWY-p7DPwg1ZYybUmCfYfybc4PsHmyKCeotm66mR2mHs3Nh8EA1jA6WLBfG_6qIbj1OjM2ac76YYfourB0bIPKrU1PoIn5k1HIT4mCzA-VruYpH6gF5fuy-YPsLxY/s1600/995b6757-4ad7-43d7-85df-2184bf9bc3e8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8q2ePIMJyy8cXO_SWY-p7DPwg1ZYybUmCfYfybc4PsHmyKCeotm66mR2mHs3Nh8EA1jA6WLBfG_6qIbj1OjM2ac76YYfourB0bIPKrU1PoIn5k1HIT4mCzA-VruYpH6gF5fuy-YPsLxY/s400/995b6757-4ad7-43d7-85df-2184bf9bc3e8.jpg" width="365" /></span></a></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Quoted from one of the Bursa Malaysia listed packaging company, Ire-Tex, Annual Report 2016</span></i><br />
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<img border="0" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwt06djs2kMXhKr24XY1hg6JspyGw8B6tRGUujBmfq3fJKC9xqYGmbeKC115kVqVb6yL9cwYjTEVQXmT8UYB42WoC-m_T0ZeNo0O7cydTMrTb9EVjtGxfaFOK2Nw41uXlwDveRpSVS5cg/s400/paper+mill+usa.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Quoted from: </span></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.pulpapernews.com/2017/01/pulp-digester-exploded-at-ip-s-pensacola-mill">http://www.pulpapernews.com/2017/01/pulp-digester-exploded-at-ip-s-pensacola-mill</a></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><u><b>3. Weakening of Ringgit against Renminbi</b></u></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Weakening of Ringgit currency that hovered around at </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">RMB </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">1.54 to 1.59 for past few months was another factor that turned some of the paper packaging companies to source cheaper papers from local. </span><br />
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<u><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Muda Holding Bhd introduction</span></b></u><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Muda Holding Bhd is the pioneer of the paper milling and packaging in Malaysia with their first paper mill in Tasek, Penang in 1964 and their first corrugator paper plant in Petaling Jaya in 1971. Today Muda own one of the largest integrated paper mill and corrugated plants in Malaysia.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh847fErMv65vUuVRunZZrgDxZhC_jxBBWom7YWUH07-W_I94vKM4Df5Ff3jloEqgvt-Vjt_rVP3I9P_zC7AeTAgyLD3m-2oJ67WFmiBPBM4n4DTIzoZYE0e7lTzCADXSA-prJNywXggRM/s1600/book.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh847fErMv65vUuVRunZZrgDxZhC_jxBBWom7YWUH07-W_I94vKM4Df5Ff3jloEqgvt-Vjt_rVP3I9P_zC7AeTAgyLD3m-2oJ67WFmiBPBM4n4DTIzoZYE0e7lTzCADXSA-prJNywXggRM/s640/book.png" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The shortage of paper supply in China will reduce
availability of imported paper to Malaysia in Malaysia and boost the demand and selling price of the Muda’s
paper.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Including a second progressive payment of RM13 million paid by the insurer to Muda Paper Mills on 17 February 2017, for the fire incident had occurred in 2016, we expected Muda is able to deliver a decent 1st quarter FY 2017 result which will announce on this May. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">However, the <span style="color: red;">risks</span> associated with the improving business environment. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For instance, benefits of higher revenue was partially offset by higher raw
material and energy cost. The
increase in raw material cost is driven by tight supply from the domestic market (recycled paper) and also an upward trend in international price of the
commodity. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In <span style="color: red;">countering such risks</span>, the Group has invested in a new corrugating machine in
the Kajang Plant, which will commence commercial production in the first half of 2017. The highly automated machine will reduce
dependence on labour force and help improve economies of scale and profit margin. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Muda Holdings Bhd closed at RM 1.62 today (declaring 3 cents dividend on 28-Jun-2017). It's trading at PE 26 due to one time inventory write off event of fire incident last year. Put this one time factor aside, Muda Holdings Bhd, the only public listed Paper Mill in Malaysia is worth to take a look.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">(Part 2 of 2)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Join us on Telegram: <a href="http://t.me/skyis_thelimit">http://t.me/skyis_thelimit</a></span></h1>
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-50318316712641089612017-05-03T04:18:00.000-07:002017-05-04T05:45:59.167-07:00Next Growth Engines of Luxchem (Part 2 of 2)<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Next Emerging Market-ASEAN, Vietnam, Particularly!</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">Luxchem has </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif; text-align: start;">established</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"> their business in Vietnam since few years back. Their business has</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"> since </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">grown from strength to strength and s</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">tart to gain traction since year of 2015 followed by the incorporation and investment in Vietnam subsidiary. In the same year, Luxchem had successfully obtained an Investment certificate which allows Luxchem to commence business in Vietnam. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgITM0-kd57Bwq5kvPZoLHi8lRnhiwzueF8y686idVYjgB6r8wYZy_k4uCSsFwbWNb5zhP406zN9Hcnv7PfogI39rOtkThS9pcELY6DHNvSc8e1d4_Kq66raJobofzJDwz5Kxb8bMyx-iA/s1600/Vietnam+Luxchem+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgITM0-kd57Bwq5kvPZoLHi8lRnhiwzueF8y686idVYjgB6r8wYZy_k4uCSsFwbWNb5zhP406zN9Hcnv7PfogI39rOtkThS9pcELY6DHNvSc8e1d4_Kq66raJobofzJDwz5Kxb8bMyx-iA/s640/Vietnam+Luxchem+1.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVi0QQkUKwfGW2neMuD98h9NgEzPKPG1VDSUYTp4DnOW41_sZX4YGitop3FRzqoDCJRftR3s7qwiAO4HAm27C39nD-Itmh9_yRyb5A5J2q_dG5NeNUVmjOwCxA7NIoKarzP1vRevgPQXQ/s1600/Vietnam+Luxchem.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVi0QQkUKwfGW2neMuD98h9NgEzPKPG1VDSUYTp4DnOW41_sZX4YGitop3FRzqoDCJRftR3s7qwiAO4HAm27C39nD-Itmh9_yRyb5A5J2q_dG5NeNUVmjOwCxA7NIoKarzP1vRevgPQXQ/s640/Vietnam+Luxchem.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Quoted from AR 2015</td></tr>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"><u>Why this License is Important for Luxchem?</u></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">With this license, Luxchem is able to sell their product to their customer in Vietnam directly and without "Middle Man". This is the win win situation for both seller and buyer, as Seller (Luxchem) will enjoy higher profit margin and sell the products at more competitive price and Buyer is able to procure the goods at lower price. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">From AR 2016, turnover in Vietnam had lifted 23% higher compared to FY2015. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"><u>Again, why Vietnam?</u></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz5HKoLGsEvGDTcZ3eAT4X_Eu6_23S5WRduxI36w3gTWG7Ni8LzjtnTC7iaC4S0GU_w-taXFg5d9AIE3StQQWeAcS3taxUh7GgeM58u2qrcildmp9C8cqh4yHlZWcOV2Kx-ssaaumVaus/s1600/vietnam.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz5HKoLGsEvGDTcZ3eAT4X_Eu6_23S5WRduxI36w3gTWG7Ni8LzjtnTC7iaC4S0GU_w-taXFg5d9AIE3StQQWeAcS3taxUh7GgeM58u2qrcildmp9C8cqh4yHlZWcOV2Kx-ssaaumVaus/s640/vietnam.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">As you can see from one of the comprehensive report about Vietnam Chemical Industry Outlook posted during year of 2016. Chemical Industry had achieved the </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"><b>high growth rate of 19.25%</b></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;"> during the year from 2010 to 2014 and it is expected to grow substantially. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , sans-serif;">The report further described,</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #fefefe; color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">"Chemicals ranked 11th among the top imported items in the country with a turnover of 1.94 billion US dollars and has just started to develop and </span><span style="color: red;"><b><span style="background-color: #fefefe; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">met only </span><span style="background-color: #fefefe; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">15-20% of demand</span><span style="background-color: #fefefe; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span></b></span><span style="background-color: #fefefe; color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">meanwhile </span><span style="background-color: #fefefe; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: red;"><b>consumption in many areas every year are so high</b></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefefe; color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">. Gaps in the market are also canvassed in detail, breaking the market into key components."</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #fefefe;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;">Quoted from <a href="http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160622006231/en/Vietnam-Chemicals-Report-2015-2016---Research-Markets">http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160622006231/en/Vietnam-Chemicals-Report-2015-2016---Research-Markets</a></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #fefefe;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;">With such a demanding Vietnam market and followed by acquisition of Transform Master Sdn Bhd, it has no doubt Luxchem could be able to continue gaining the traction and heading to their 10th consecutive growth financial year (expect for FY2012, slight decrease of 2 mil in turnover)</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fefefe;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;">The price of Luxchem was traded at <b>RM 1.56 </b>with the<b> PE of 8.5</b>, DY of 4.3%. Margin of safety is relatively high for a gro</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(254 , 254 , 254); color: rgb(68 , 68 , 68); font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;">wing business.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fefefe;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;">Comparing to its close peer, Sxxcxxx, with the price of RM2.28, PE of 20.76, DY of 2.6%. </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #fefefe;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;">What say you?</span></span><br />
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-58340498728275851992017-05-03T00:44:00.001-07:002017-05-04T05:50:18.314-07:00The "Blue Sky" in China and the Rising Sun in Malaysia (Part 1 of 2)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I was in Shanghai, China during January this year for 6 days company business trip. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The factory location is at Jiangyin city <span style="background-color: white; color: #545454;">江阴</span>, a 3 tier city nearby to Wuxi <span style="background-color: white; color: #545454;">无锡. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">My private car driver had taken me to Shanghai CBD area for quick city sightseeing b</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">efore two hours of journey to Jiangyin city from Shanghai Pudong airport,</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Surprisingly, first photo taken at 2.30pm from The Bund, <span style="background-color: white; color: #545454;">外滩.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyp7oq9qt3KhKgOyO-1OLvQg6k-FRwle8h9i4MiwgoOVVO0xoH3VJK3FIBhxYV4l81I-INoE0Dzm-Ztz_Lzm0JC01atV25kMZjnG2M556sIIPhlS_ovj981jjPgvesc6h0o_pcl-4ypz8/s1600/f8d0e77d-9eb5-4870-9152-90c49357eb1b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyp7oq9qt3KhKgOyO-1OLvQg6k-FRwle8h9i4MiwgoOVVO0xoH3VJK3FIBhxYV4l81I-INoE0Dzm-Ztz_Lzm0JC01atV25kMZjnG2M556sIIPhlS_ovj981jjPgvesc6h0o_pcl-4ypz8/s640/f8d0e77d-9eb5-4870-9152-90c49357eb1b.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A thick layer of smog rolled into Shanghai, turning skyscrapers into shadows and clear sky into greyish fog. Smog in China has many causes, including pollution from heavy industries and traffic. But the scenario tends to happen more serious and often in the winter because of plummeting temperatures cause coal fired/fossil fuel power plant demand to soar.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Situation getting worse on the way to smaller town .</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNza4eQCeTQqdrNPi8LEJUIJYylmvCHkJSG3KjYsCgF5x9R9Oj6CQP6bB8kc58FTQFiqW91rPUYAM2334raPVM6Z9BmEYVlfBc0KttBBZSefOkjV_GKBagB6cf7y0vZbaDNllaRtu4UQI/s1600/4cddc5e4-e7b7-4c45-8e27-e48e228a91a8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNza4eQCeTQqdrNPi8LEJUIJYylmvCHkJSG3KjYsCgF5x9R9Oj6CQP6bB8kc58FTQFiqW91rPUYAM2334raPVM6Z9BmEYVlfBc0KttBBZSefOkjV_GKBagB6cf7y0vZbaDNllaRtu4UQI/s640/4cddc5e4-e7b7-4c45-8e27-e48e228a91a8.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>Photo taken at 11 am, second day at JiangYin</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Next day, see to believe on the root cause which has caused the air pollution. See below photo, power plant nearby to my vendor's factory, is burning tonnes of coal to power up the heaters to keep the city warm.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2GTmH6j_fGnpqPkFw-dpPczoetKwYxuoMrLvwSQ8Pt3XBW1bbUl_EyDumkiu_veF6j7qoe-ECyzuKsBO4ioP6400cZof2R0_IfgtEsoObLA9ulAHhZ4ctaTKWYF_cP7wJNUUAzcaBCbg/s1600/d0fe19fe-84d6-4b2c-905c-9093af07abb0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2GTmH6j_fGnpqPkFw-dpPczoetKwYxuoMrLvwSQ8Pt3XBW1bbUl_EyDumkiu_veF6j7qoe-ECyzuKsBO4ioP6400cZof2R0_IfgtEsoObLA9ulAHhZ4ctaTKWYF_cP7wJNUUAzcaBCbg/s640/d0fe19fe-84d6-4b2c-905c-9093af07abb0.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>JiangYin Coal Fired Power Plant</i></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0SjAH2s-jbcVsPz87cBLvVhRDKAxV1e9qOH86CPKMBhrJUi7edMJbj5UoFd02pd1CpjRvqWxQc8p_eMbfxYPgV6n3JrYvieTP-2MR29G1yms9rS_H7LwmQK2vPnj7njmibYoVAzFFeGI/s1600/coalpower.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0SjAH2s-jbcVsPz87cBLvVhRDKAxV1e9qOH86CPKMBhrJUi7edMJbj5UoFd02pd1CpjRvqWxQc8p_eMbfxYPgV6n3JrYvieTP-2MR29G1yms9rS_H7LwmQK2vPnj7njmibYoVAzFFeGI/s640/coalpower.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Screenshot from Google map, Tonnes of Coal which keep at the open area of the size of around 50 football fields</i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">To battle air pollution issue, China government has implemented series of actions under the plan called "Blue Sky" or <span style="text-align: center;">蓝天计划 which</span></span><span style="font-size: small; text-align: center;"> led the local government to order factories, some power plants and schools to shut/cut output. Steel mills, some under construction sites, paper mills are the victims under this plan.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">(Part 1 of 2)</span></div>
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Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3396791912276760095.post-40113249652384858062017-04-30T09:09:00.000-07:002017-05-10T19:26:14.896-07:00Next Growth Engines of Luxchem (Part 1 of 2)<span style="color: red; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><u><b>Next Growth Engines of LUXCHEM (Part 1)</b></u></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">LUXCHEM BHD had delivered a much improved earnings performance in 1QFY17,
due to improved contribution from both manufacturing and trading activities (+94.4% YoY). </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">EPS had improved significantly from 2.64 per share to 4.94 per cent. Share price is stood at RM 1.56 (28th of April 2017) with the<b> PE of only 8.69</b>. This improvement of YoY result has encouraged me to share the insight of Luxchem's business development, since Luxchem is an extremely low profile company with huge potential to growth.</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><u><b>The first main growth engine of Luxchem- Acquisition of Transform Master</b></u></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-2CUvkb2xJMmuxH_ur0SiU6BvPYF7YRMKMg7WBOqsXtzTLC_PF7-cfK9JA-fHW_ZnRQD9aDdlJHEAzxHv0XNtPyvxfWfaWMqAAqm8y5qBqNhfed7aNm7Dvqim9lJHOeAPxB501qy0rgk/s1600/Luxchem+QoQ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-2CUvkb2xJMmuxH_ur0SiU6BvPYF7YRMKMg7WBOqsXtzTLC_PF7-cfK9JA-fHW_ZnRQD9aDdlJHEAzxHv0XNtPyvxfWfaWMqAAqm8y5qBqNhfed7aNm7Dvqim9lJHOeAPxB501qy0rgk/s640/Luxchem+QoQ.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Source: Luxchem 1QFY17 Quarterly Financial Report, Page 9 of 13</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Follow by Luxchem's acquisition of Transform Master Sdn Bhd (TMSB) since April of 2016, TMSB has contributed to Luxchem's revenue and profit positively.</span><br />
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<u><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Who is Transform Master Sdn Bhd? (</b></span></u><a href="http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/" target="_blank">http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/</a><u><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>)</b></span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">TMSB is a chemical manufacturing plant who mainly produce rubber latex chemical dispersion, latex processing chemicals, latex surfactant, dispersasant & specialty chemicals for latex industry.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Their plant is strategically located at Lumut Port, which is nearby to well known Malaysia oil and gas giant, SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><u>What is the reason behind for Luxchem to acquire Transform Master?</u></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Which I believe Transform Master's main customer, YTY Group is the main driver behind. YTY is the medical glove manufacturer located in Perak and they are in aggressive expansion mode.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><b>"Back to year of 2010, they have some of the most modern and automated lines in the industry. Our current production capacity exceeds 8.2 billion pieces of gloves a year"</b></i></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">YTY First GLove Factory Located at Lekir Perak</td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b><i>"By year 2012, our production capacity would have increased to <span style="color: red;">10.5 billion</span> pieces a year" (</i></b>Quoted from YTY Group Website)</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; text-align: center;">The capacity towards <span style="color: red;">10.5 billion</span> pieces of medical gloves was underpinned by their second factory which is located at Lumut Port, under the name of <b>Green Prospect Sdn Bhd</b>.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8BcYTs3lIAFejhyZ4qtW_eLFwZbiMMr4XxMzaYW08Qsc1YrF7qe7zAXT0gweNDqMMiBPJZp9J8uj5GqTzYrxaDYI_tp7tsxoEJuSw8lMNTAKpm8ROQhoTbignEe0xIUaNpu_csMEEzwU/s1600/Greenprospect1st.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8BcYTs3lIAFejhyZ4qtW_eLFwZbiMMr4XxMzaYW08Qsc1YrF7qe7zAXT0gweNDqMMiBPJZp9J8uj5GqTzYrxaDYI_tp7tsxoEJuSw8lMNTAKpm8ROQhoTbignEe0xIUaNpu_csMEEzwU/s640/Greenprospect1st.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Now, YTY Group has further expand their capacity aggressively through their third plant located at Lumut Port too, just next to SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard. There is a huge parcel of land which allows YTY group<span style="color: red;"> <b>DOUBLE UP</b></span> their capacity easily.<br />
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I believe their third plant has started production but yet to fully operated. As you can see from photo, the plant is equipped with workers dormitories too. With the uninterrupted water supply in Perak and strategic location beside the Lumut Port, YTY Group is in the right direction to further expand their business globally.<br />
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<span style="color: red;">*REMARK-OUT OF DATE Photos Taken from Google Map back to year of 2013 and 2015</span><br />
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<span style="color: red;">*REMARK-OUT OF DATE Photos Taken from Google Map back to year of 2013 and 2015</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span>As such, I believe Transform Master Sdn Bhd, as the <b>sole supplier </b>of Latex Processing Related Chemicals will continue benefited from the aggressive and stable development of YTY group, locally and regionally.<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><br />Khaihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02053512604746567780noreply@blogger.com1