浅谈大马纸包装行业

上一篇文章笔者分享了大马上游造纸厂业的背景和数据资料，以让读者能够先从纸业的上游大概了解整个纸包装行业的运作。

这一篇会提到瓦楞盒制造的简介和纸包装业者的运作，及国际纸价上涨的影响。

*包装业者（Orna Paper, PPHB, Box-Pak, Master-Pack)
*上游造纸业者 （Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Pascorp Paper)

瓦楞纸到纸箱的制造过程如下，

 
 首先，包装业者会向上游造纸厂购买Corrugated Medium, Kraft Liner/Liner (图一）作为原料并运回厂做加工(图二）成为瓦楞纸（图三，图四,）。过后包装业者根据客户的要求切割标准尺寸的瓦楞纸，最后进行彩色打印（如客户有此需求）。有兴趣进一步详细了解瓦楞纸制造的读者可以观看 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5nNUPNvWAw

(图一): https://www.gspp.com.my/product.html

（图二):http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html

（图三): http://www.madehow.com/Volume-1/Corrugated-Cardboard.html

（图四):http://www.packsize.com/know-your-different-types-of-corrugated-cardboard/

包装业者要如何提高的Profit Margin,最主要还是以订单量的大小(economies of scale & capacity utilization),效率（efficiency)和 来取胜。订单量越大，机器的设置时间就能够缩短，效率就提升和降低成本。然而至于能不能通过Cost Pass-Through来提高盈利也就牵制于客户的合作关系，货品的质量，发货时间，Payment Term等等因素。

最后一个杀手锏就是包装业者能否向上游造纸厂拿到价钱相对合理的原料货源。有这一方面货源成本优势的公司除了已经下市包装业者的 HPI Resources和 GS Paper and Packaging (均属于Oji Paper旗下），另一间就是属于Muda Paper Mills旗下的Federal Packages Sdn Bhd（http://www.federalpack.com.my/）。HPI Resources, GS Paper Packaging和 Federal Packages Sdn Bhd均能向自己的母公司（也就是上游造纸厂）拿到成本相对低廉的货源。

当然其他的包装业者也可从国外如印尼，越南和中国入口原料，但碍于马币的相对弱势和越南与中国也同样面对瓦楞纸短缺，所以本地包装业者还是倾向于本地的造纸厂拿货。最近的七月份，中国包装业者更向大马及越南造纸厂大量收购瓦楞纸以致出现当地货源价格上涨的问题。最近十月越南市场更有消息传出因中国包装业者的大量抢购，造成越南包装业者面对苦无原料开工的窘境。

虽然原料价钱上涨了，但是下半年通常是包装业者的传统强季，部分包装业者也有能力把额外的成本转嫁给客户。例如Orna Paper在季度报告就提到了他们成功把成本上涨转让给客户。Master-Pack也在最新季度报告提到了他们通过提高出货量和售价来进一步提升盈利。

笔者认为大马的瓦楞纸比起国外还是有优势的，因为外国货源的确是紧张和价钱也比大马高。从METS在八月份数据得知瓦楞纸原料外国入口量在下降，而瓦楞纸成品的出口量却持续增加。这说明了两个原因，

1. 包装业者纷纷转向本地造纸厂拿货。双方都得到好处， 包装业者可以拿到价格相对便宜的本地货，造纸厂生意额也增加了。
2. 包装业者货源充足有能力把瓦楞纸成品出口，赚取更好的利润。

总结：
这次纸价上扬的赢家肯定是上游造纸业者（Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Pascorp Paper),因为他们拥有控制价钱的话语权 Price Setter。 作为 Price Taker的包装业者（Orna Paper, PPHB, Box-Pak, Master-Pack)则需要通过本身工厂大小的规格和一系列的努力来控制成本以便能够在竞争的市场胜出。

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以上文章纯属分享，并没有买卖建议

浅谈大马造纸业

資匯周刊这期报道了造纸和瓦楞纸包装行业，并与最近火红的钢铁行业做比较。因此想借此机会在进一步探索大马的造纸业的前景和它与中国的供给侧改革的影响。

这篇文章只对纸业的上游做分析，并不包含中下游的业务。当然有些上游公司也包含了一些中下游业务，不过不在重点讨论之内。

马来西亚的四大纸厂

1. Muda Paper Mill

最大型的造纸厂,一间工厂位于Kajang和另一间位于北部北海的厂。两间厂合起来的总生产量为490,000MT，为大马造纸厂的龙头老大，也是唯一一间上市的公司。主要产品为瓦楞纸,就是我们平常看到的褐色盒子的原材料。

2. GS Paper & Packaging,HPI (Group of Oji Paper)

位于雪兰莪万津的工厂,被日本的Oji Paper Group集团在2010年收购。2011年Oji Paper Group收购了上市公司HPI Resorces,本身的产量大约66,000MT产能。加上GS Paper 本身的282,000MT,总产能为348,000MT.主要产品为瓦楞纸。


3. Pascorp Paper Industries Sdn Bhd

一间位于彭亨文东由彭亨州政府控制的工厂，年产量为300,000MT，主要产品为瓦楞纸。


4. Sabah Forest Industries

前身为Lion Forest Industries，在2007年以9.45亿的价钱卖给印度的Avanth Group作为还债的用途。而在于2015年Avanth Group以5亿美金转手出售给Pandawa Sakti,马来西亚一间私人公司.这价钱包含了一块288,138 Ha的树林种植土地和从120,000MT到240,000MT产能升级。主要产品为白色文具纸张，主要出口到中东和非洲国家。

中国环境政策的影响，加强对造纸业的监管


中国双十一将至，市场上严缺纸箱。因为受到于中国禁止入口洋垃圾的政策，中国纸厂在缺乏入口废纸的大环境下，苦苦面对下游商的堆积如山的订单却无法生产。所以在过去马来西亚的包装中下游业者向中国纸商拿货的情况一去不复返。你可以在很多上市的中下游公司的季度文告可以发现几乎每家包装业者都转向本地纸厂拿货了。Muda Paper也在他们的年度季度报告提到了这一点,如下。

英媒：中国禁止进口“洋垃圾” 世界都慌了

http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/press-review-41348959


双十一旺季将至。中国电商陷纸箱缺货大危机 http://sinchew.com.my/node/1683272/%E5%8F%8C11%E6%97%BA%E5%AD%A3%E5%B0%86%E8%87%B3%EF%BC%8E

中国电商陷纸箱缺货最大的受益者当然是前三位的瓦楞纸纸厂，因为第一中国货源减少加上价钱提高，所以本地包装业者选择不从中国入口。第二因为中国禁止洋垃圾入口，大马造纸厂可以以更低价入口作为生产瓦楞纸的废纸。所以在这时候的大环境是非常有利于马来西亚的造纸厂，不过能够参股的就只有Muda Paper Mills 而已。

The "Blue Sky" in China and the Rising Sun in Malaysia (Part 2 of 2)

Paper Mills in Malaysia, MUDA HOLDINGS BHD, is benefiting from "Blue Sky" Policy in China

1.Why? Shut down of Paper Mills in China

Paper mill is one of the affected industries in China, due to its high waste water discharged to environment. Paper mills in China is forced to shut down periodically. Up to date, 1/3 of paper mills production located in ZheJiang are idle, the supply of papers is cut down by at least 30 to 40%. While demand in China is remain high for their mainland internal consumption only. 

With reduced supply of raw paper, the price of paper has continued to rise.

Since November 2016, 16 paper manufacturers raised their prices by 100 yuan to 600 yuan per ton.

Quoted from: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=178282

Quoted from http://www.chinapaper.net/news/show-22163.html

2.Why? Another Major Incident in USA

Other than China, one of the Major paper mills manufacturer in USA has faced the production disruption due to explosion and affected the paper worldwide supply.

Quoted from one of the Bursa Malaysia listed packaging company, Ire-Tex, Annual Report 2016

Quoted from: http://www.pulpapernews.com/2017/01/pulp-digester-exploded-at-ip-s-pensacola-mill

3. Weakening of Ringgit against Renminbi

Weakening of Ringgit currency that hovered around at RMB 1.54 to 1.59  for past few months was another factor that turned some of the paper packaging companies to source cheaper papers from local. 

Muda Holding Bhd introduction

Muda Holding Bhd is the pioneer of the paper milling and packaging in Malaysia with their first paper mill in Tasek, Penang in 1964 and their first corrugator paper plant in Petaling Jaya in 1971. Today Muda own one of the largest integrated paper mill and corrugated plants in Malaysia.

Muda Group's Products

The shortage of paper supply in China will reduce availability of imported paper to Malaysia in Malaysia and boost the demand and selling price of the Muda’s paper.

Including a second progressive payment of RM13 million paid by the insurer to Muda Paper Mills on 17 February 2017, for the fire incident had occurred in 2016, we expected Muda is able to deliver a decent 1st quarter FY 2017 result which will announce on this May. 

However, the risks associated with the improving business environment.  

For instance, benefits of higher revenue was partially offset by higher raw material and energy cost. The increase in raw material cost is driven by tight supply from the domestic market (recycled paper) and also an upward trend in international price of the commodity. 

In countering such risks, the Group has invested in a new corrugating machine in the Kajang Plant, which will commence commercial production in the first half of 2017. The highly automated machine will reduce dependence on labour force and help improve economies of scale and profit margin.

Muda Holdings Bhd closed at RM 1.62 today (declaring 3 cents dividend on 28-Jun-2017). It's trading at PE 26 due to one time inventory write off event of fire incident last year. Put this one time factor aside, Muda Holdings Bhd, the only public listed Paper Mill in Malaysia is worth to take a look.

(Part 2 of 2)

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The "Blue Sky" in China and the Rising Sun in Malaysia (Part 1 of 2)

I was in Shanghai, China during January this year for 6 days company business trip. 

The factory location is at Jiangyin city 江阴, a 3 tier city nearby to Wuxi 无锡. 

My private car driver had taken me to Shanghai CBD area for quick city sightseeing before two hours of journey to Jiangyin city from Shanghai Pudong airport, 

Surprisingly, first photo taken at 2.30pm from The Bund, 外滩.

A thick layer of smog rolled into Shanghai, turning skyscrapers into shadows and clear sky into greyish fog. Smog in China has many causes, including pollution from heavy industries and traffic. But the scenario tends to happen more serious and often in the winter because of  plummeting temperatures cause coal fired/fossil fuel power plant demand to soar.

Situation getting worse on the way to smaller town .

Photo taken at 11 am, second day at JiangYin

Next day, see to believe on the root cause which has caused the air pollution. See below photo, power plant nearby to my vendor's factory, is burning tonnes of coal to power up the heaters to keep the city warm.

JiangYin Coal Fired Power Plant

Screenshot from Google map, Tonnes of Coal which keep at the open area of the size of around 50 football fields

To battle air pollution issue, China government has implemented series of actions under the plan called "Blue Sky" or 蓝天计划 which led the local government to order factories, some power plants and schools to shut/cut output. Steel mills, some under construction sites, paper mills are the victims under this plan.

(Part 1 of 2)

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